Turkey fears Ukraine conflict will spill over on its Black Sea shores

Ankara is voicing alarm over a spate of attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea, with fears that strikes on ships carrying oil and other key commodities could threaten global trade and pose environmental dangers to Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the strategic sea.

The Turkish government on Thursday summoned both Russian and Ukrainian envoys, warning them to desist from escalating the conflict in the Black Sea.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the past week's attacks on three Russian tankers as "unjustifiable". Kyiv said its drones targeted two of the vessels, and Moscow has warned it may consider striking the ships of countries supporting Ukraine if such attacks continue.

"This escalation is very dangerous; no one can estimate what will happen," warns international relations expert and former Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin.

"Putin says he will use reciprocity rights. This means some of the [Russian] submarines could attack not only Ukraine but also some of the Western NATO allies' tanker ships," he explains, a possibility that raises the threat of "a very big environmental disaster".

Shadow fleet

Kyiv has claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on two empty Russian-flagged tankers but denied involvement in the strike on a ship carrying sunflower oil to Georgia.

The Russian tankers belong to Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", which is used to circumvent international sanctions by carrying oil and other exports aboard ships not officially registered to the government. 

Given Turkey's long Black Sea coast, fears of an environmental catastrophe are foremost for Ankara.

"These shadow fleet tankers are not modern and are not in good condition," observes former Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp.

"The Russians provide their own domestic insurance for these ships," he says. "But how useful and how valid these insurances will be [...] remains a question mark."

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Trade implications

With Ukrainian forces destroying much of Russia's navy in the Black Sea, Moscow has limited capacities to protect its tankers.

Ukraine has so far targeted only empty Russian tankers, but alarm bells are ringing on the potential implications for global trade.

"Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of basic food and agricultural commodities," notes analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners.

"Despite massive bombing, Ukraine's grain export capacity is largely intact and is taking the coastal route. So any impairment of that is bad for the world at a time when we are not certain of crop yields because of the ongoing drought elsewhere."

Insurance premiums for cargo ships using the Black Sea have already spiked amidst the escalating conflict.

Ankara wary of escalation

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his NATO counterparts this week, broaching the topic of ensuring safe navigation of the vital sea trade route.

Turkey is already cooperating with its partners in the alliance that share the Black Sea coast, Romania and Bulgaria, to clear sea mines. Fidan said that cooperation could be expanded to enhance shipping security. 

However, any increased NATO involvement in the Black Sea would be borne mainly by the Turkish navy, given that the Romanian and Bulgarian navies are largely coastal forces.

Ships belonging to navies outside the Black Sea have been shut out by Ankara since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, along with Russian warships. Turkey, under the 1936 Montreux Convention, regulates access to the sea and is only allowing warships to enter to return to their home ports.

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Former diplomat Kuneralp claims Ankara will be cautious of getting drawn into any conflict in the Black Sea.

"It would put all the burden on Turkey alone. What would it do? Would it try to intervene in a dispute between Russia and Ukraine? That's unlikely. I would not want that to happen because it would be too risky," he says.

"And that's perhaps why there have not been any concrete actions since the start of the war other than talk."

For now, Turkey – one of the few countries with good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow – is relying on diplomacy, and hoping that Washington's ongoing peace efforts will succeed.