Erdogan hints at larger nuclear partnership with Russia, unsettling Turkey's allies

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is signalling a move to expand nuclear power cooperation with Russia, just as his country’s first Russian-built nuclear station prepares to go live later this year. The deepening partnership is likely to unsettle Turkey’s western allies.

On the sidelines of a recent gathering of regional leaders in Kyrgyzstan, Erdogan told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that Russia and Turkey “will take steps together to open some new power plants, along with the opening of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant”.

The Akkuyu nuclear power plant, built by Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom on Turkey's Mediterranean coast, is due to go online later this year.

Erdogan’s announcement comes amid strained ties with Russia, as the Turkish leader has deepened relations with United States President Donald Trump.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of US think tank the German Marshall Fund, describes Erdogan’s move as a “gesture” to Putin.

“Although Turkey is competing with Russia geopolitically, and although Turkey is firmly anchored in NATO and is improving its relationship with the United States, it does not intend to sever all ties with Russia,” Unluhisarcikli explained.

“Indeed, Turkey sees the Turkey-Russia relationship as a long-term strategic one. And this is, by the way, consistent with Turkey's balancing act.”

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Nuclear lifeline

For Ankara, nuclear energy promises to help it break free from its heavy reliance on imported power. Once operational, the Akkuyu plant in southern Turkey will supply as much as 10 percent of the country’s electricity.

Rosatom owns the Akkuyu power plant and will recoup the estimated €21.5 billion construction costs by selling electricity to Turkey, generating annual income of around €2-3 billion.

Such income could be a vital tool for Moscow to mitigate tightening sanctions by both the European Union and the United States.

“The Akkuyu nuclear power plant allows Russia to build itself various state-to-state payment channels to store liquidity in Turkish banks without necessarily interfering with any sanctions regulations,” according to George Voloshin of Acams, a global organisation dedicated to anti-financial crime, training and education.

Voloshin believes that, given the project's 60- to 80-year lifespan, Turkey’s commitment to Russian nuclear power will shape bilateral ties for the long term, with consequences.

“It will be a source of scrutiny from western partners of Turkey. At the same time, nuclear energy has been so far shielded from any sanctions, so for Russia it is clearly a kind of lifeline,” he said.

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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has maintained that it is not bound by EU or US sanctions on Moscow. Yet behind the scenes, it has quietly followed many restrictions and secured crucial waivers, especially for Russian gas.

By leveraging its pivotal location near Syria and Iran, Ankara has walked a diplomatic tightrope between its western partners and Moscow.

However, deepening nuclear cooperation with Russia threatens to complicate the already difficult balancing act.

“It would reinforce the already existing distrust between Turkey and Europe and Turkey and the United States,” warned Unluhisarcikli.

“But at the same time, Turkey is in talks with other countries, the United States and South Korea. These are the main two competitors for Russia.”

Mutual dependency

Turkey’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has stirred unease at home, and the idea of doubling down with Russian nuclear energy only heightens the sense of anxiety. “It is a dilemma,” Unluhisarcikli conceded.

Yet with Russia willing to shoulder the hefty construction costs, cash-strapped Ankara has a strong incentive to continue the partnership.

Russia expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish-German University points out that more than a decade of joint investment makes it tough for Turkey to turn to alternative suppliers.

"It's quite a profound project,” said Gasimov, “Russia conducts the training of Turkish specialists in the field of nuclear energy, which started 15 years ago. We now have three or four waves of Turkish engineers who stayed for longer periods in Russia; they learn the Russian language for two years, and you have an infrastructure of specialists.”

However, Gasimov stresses that, given the scale of investment by both sides, it has created an important mutual dependency. “Its importance makes the two sides, somehow, at the end, interested in preserving a certain level of the relationship,” he said.

This shared reliance might help keep Turkish-Russian rivalries in check, from North Africa to the Middle East, the Caucasus and the Black Sea.

Yet any step toward deeper nuclear cooperation is bound to invite sharper scrutiny and rising suspicion from Ankara’s western allies.