Montenegro protests expose fragile balance in Serbia-Turkey relations

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans.

“Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence.

The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals.

After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo.

“There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.”

Widening rift

While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999.

Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region.

“There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia.

“So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.”

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Changing alliances

The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia.

However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.”

Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans.

“Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories.

“The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.”

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Turkish expansion

Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region.

“They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said.

Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots."

However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned.

As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten.

The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours.

“Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”