Greece and Turkey look to revive rapprochement amid Aegean tensions

A meeting between the leaders of Greece and Turkey next week seeks to rejuvenate a stalled rapprochement process between the neighbouring countries, amid growing tensions and fears of an unpredictable intervention by US President Donald Trump.

Wednesday’s meeting in Ankara between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest in a series aimed at improving relations.

It stems from the 2023 Athens Declaration, a formal statement of friendship that led to better economic cooperation and a cooling of military tensions over the disputed Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean Seas.

Mitsotakis’s visit comes at a critical time for the process. “I think it's very important, the meeting has been postponed twice in the past,” says former Greek foreign ministry advisor Panayotis Ioakimidis, who now teaches at the University of Athens.

“There are some people within the [Greek] governing party, and outside it, who have serious reservations about improving or even talking about relations with Turkey,” he notes. “So it's very important for the meeting to happen, to keep cooperation going; otherwise, relations risk sliding into conflict.”

Claims on the Aegean

The talks come as tensions over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast untapped energy reserves – are on the rise.

In January, the Greek foreign minister, George Gerapetritis, announced Greece’s intent to exercise its right under international law to extend its territorial waters in the Aegean from six to 12 nautical miles, to create a marine park.

Erdogan is expected to remind his Greek counterpart that any extension of territorial waters is a red line for Turkey. “Mitsotakis will get some lectures in Ankara,” predicts international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

In 1995, the Turkish parliament passed a motion declaring that Greece unilaterally extending its waters beyond six miles was a casus belli – cause for war. “Twelve miles [of] territorial waters for Greece means the Turkish ships cannot go one kilometre outside of Turkish territory. Turkey cannot accept this,” says Bagci.

In response, Athens is using Greece’s European Union veto to prevent Turkey from joining the EU’s SAFE defence procurement programme until Turkey withdraws its threat of war.

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Alliance with Israel

Adding to tensions, last December Greece and Cyprus signed a series of defence agreements with one of Turkey’s fiercest rivals – Israel.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of seeking to encircle Turkey, while Turkish media dubbed it an “axis of evil”.

Mitsotakis is expected to try to allay such concerns during his visit to Ankara. “The Greek side thinks it can separate these issues and keep them quite separate from the bilateral issues between Greece and Turkey,” says Ioakimidis. “But it’s a very likely scenario to take the countries into very dangerous waters.”

Israel’s military support of Greece is to blame for Athens’ more assertive stance in the Aegean, argues Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. He says that Greece acts more boldly when backed by others: “Once they enjoy the support of another, material or narrative, they are much more courageous to challenge.”

If Greece maintains this approach, Aslan suggests, Turkey will likely go back to increasing its military activity.

Prior to recent attempts at rapprochement, Turkish and Greek warplanes often challenged each another in mock dogfights in the disputed airspace over the Aegean.

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Trump effect

However, Trump could provide an impetus to contain tensions.

With the American ambassador to Greece announcing this week that the US president will visit Athens, both Erdogan and Mitsotakis will be wary of Trump's involvement in their bilateral affairs.

“I think both countries are concerned about this destabilisation to the international order that the Trump administration has brought,” says Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara’s Bilkent University, a specialist in Greek-Turkish relations.

“It may be a strong incentive for both sides to declare that things are OK, so let's keep Trump's intervention away from Turkish-Greek relations. I don't think that any side would like that to happen, given the circumstances and the unpredictability of such an intervention.”

Wednesday’s meeting is set to emphasise the economic benefits of rapprochement and regional cooperation. However, amid persistent Aegean tensions and Turkey’s concerns over Israel’s role, expectations for progress remain low.