Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union.

Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman’s victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise.

“The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik.

Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states.

“Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.”

It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey’s interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said.

Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara.

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Shift away from partition

Analysts say Erhurman’s win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan’s two state strategy for Cyprus.

“The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University’s International Relations Department.

He said Erdogan’s reaction to the election points to a change in approach.

“President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.”

Erdogan’s stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey.

Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations.

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EU ties on the line

Cyprus has long blocked Turkey’s hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE.

“So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening.

“Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.”

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A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said.

“Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said.

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Changing priorities

EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path.

“The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said. 

"That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.”

Turkey’s backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz’s visit to Ankara later this month.

Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.