Turkey warns it could be Israel's 'next enemy' as tensions escalate

Turkey's foreign minister has warned it could be Israel’s "next enemy" as the war with Iran appears headed for closure, and called for a Middle East security pact amid rising tensions between the two countries. 

"After Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy – it has to develop a rhetoric to shape public opinion," declared Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in a television interview on Monday.

"We see that not only Netanyahu’s administration, but also some figures in the opposition – though not all – are seeking to declare Turkey the new enemy."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become one of the region’s most vocal critics of Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, fuelling a surge in bilateral tensions.

In response, Israel accuses Erdogan of backing terrorist organisations, including Hamas, whom Erdogan has called “liberation fighters".

Diplomatic ties have withered, leaving only a skeleton crew in each respective embassy.

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Turkish-Israeli relations have a history of highs and lows, but current tensions are unprecedented, argues Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu.

"Turkey is considering Israel a security threat because of the unpredictability factor of the Israeli government,” he said, noting that Israel’s unpredictability, combined with a breakdown in mutual understanding, is causing deep unease within Ankara’s corridors of power.

“Mutual understanding is especially critical when it comes to establishing at least a minimum amount of security environment, and the lack of such ability forces Turkey to take precautionary measures in both diplomatic, strategic and military domains as well,” he said.

Baku's 'silent diplomacy'

Fidan on Monday also called for the formation of a Middle East security pact – following follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent warning of an emerging radical Sunni alliance in the region, which he said is threatening Israel.

Alarmed by the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan – one of the few countries with strong ties to both Turkey and Israel – has quietly entered the fray.

“We are behind the scenes through the silent diplomacy, effectively contributing to de-conflict certain elements of the misunderstandings and also building a certain trust and channels of communication between the two parties,” said Hikmet Haciyev, assistant to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and head of the country's Department of Foreign Affairs.

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With Turkey and Israel both having a military hold in Syria, the country is a potential flashpoint.

The Baku talks saw the creation of a hotline between Turkish and Israeli militaries to avoid any accidental clashes between their air forces, which routinely fly over Syria.

But with two Israeli ministers last year calling for the assassination of the Syrian President Ahmed al-Assad, a key ally of Erdogan, Syria remains a hotspot, and Fidan warned on Monday that Israel could target Syria after the Iran conflict.

Washington's role

Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, while acknowledging Baku’s role, says more needs to be done.

“I would say tensions between Turkey and Israel are high enough that the United States also has to be involved. And I think there's a wider understanding in Washington that they should play this role."

Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank, agrees.

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"Washington certainly has to step in and do more in order to mediate between Turkey and Israel. This is a very, very dangerous rivalry and it has the hallmarks of emerging into a long-term enmity,” she warned.

However, Aydintasbas questions Washington’s readiness and ability.

“Traditionally, it's been the US role, actually, to mediate between Turkey and Israel. The Trump administration, though, is not very focused on it. This is not the kind of stuff the Trump administration excels in – the painstaking, cumbersome work of diplomacy, of roadmaps, confidence-building measures and so on," she said.

The formidable strength of both the Israeli and Turkish militaries serves as a strong deterrent against open conflict. Yet, as both nations vie for influence across overlapping arenas – from the Gulf States to the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean – the risk of escalation and regional destabilisation continues to cast a long shadow.