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Troubador Publishing Ltd - Lukas Neckermann

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53 pages

English

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For years, we've assumed that we are headed toward a world where vehicles will be autonomous and shared, assuring hassle-free and seamless mobility. But is this a "double leap" too big to accept? What hurdles stand in the way of shared autonomy, and what steps do we need to take to overcome them?This study is based on proprietary research conducted in the UK, and over 20 interviews from across the world. Our findings suggest that user adoption might represent a bigger challenge than expected. We aim to realign the debate on the awareness and education necessary for the human adoption of autonomous technology.

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Publié par	Troubador Publishing Ltd
Date de parution	12 septembre 2020
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9781800467378
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	5 Mo

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Copyright © 2020 Lukas Neckermann and Frederic John

The moral right of the author has been asserted.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.

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Contents

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

Building a Framework

2. Autonomous vehicle studies: Yesterday and today

3. The journey toward shared, autonomous mobility

4. Overcoming resistance to change
4.1 User adoption speed
4.2 Overcoming emotionality in the automotive experience
4.3 Acceptance to change in five steps

Study Findings

5. Trust and confidence: A global perspective
5.1 UK results
5.2 Lack of confidence: Some root causes
5.3 Are OEMs ready to build trust?

6. Educating future users
6.1 How to communicate with future users?
6.2 What is safety for an autonomous vehicle?
6.3 Further ideas to get people on board

7. Ownership is dead, long live shared mobility. Not so fast!
7.1 Factors impacting the private ownership
7.2 Is ownership compatible with sharing?

Study Implications

8. People’s desires, a source of businesses opportunity
8.1 New opportunities, new revenue streams
8.2 New businesses, new players
8.3 What if mobility were free?

9. The autonomous market strategy
9.1 Which Industry Segments?
9.2 Partnerships among (un)equals?
Privately owned AVs
Shared AVs case

10. Conclusion

About Neckermann Strategic Advisors

About the Authors

Acknowledgement

References
Executive Summary

For years, we’ve assumed that we are headed toward a world where vehicles will be autonomous and shared, ensuring hassle-free and seamless mobility – the only question was, by when. In fact, we are headed toward this “Mobility Revolution” more quickly each day, and it sometimes seems that the main barriers to make it all a reality are regulations, infrastructure and a bit more research and development.

For most people, giving up both the steering wheel and private ownership of their own vehicle represents not one, but two significant steps. But, we can’t think of any examples in the history of technology adoption where humans – well-known for their resistance to change – were able to embrace two similarly disruptive, linked innovations at the same time. Is shared autonomy a ‘double-leap’ too great for people to accept?

This report summarises our findings, and suggests that user adoption of the combination of these might represent a far larger challenge than anticipated. This is due not only to natural human resistance to change, but to the irrational passion drivers have about their vehicles. This translates amog other factors directly into a low confidence level that people feel about autonomous vehicles. Our research has allowed us to explore four root causes of this lack of trust:

1. Human nature
2. Education issues
3. Lack of industry foundation
4. Survey bias

This study centres on the debate around people education, awareness and acceptance to remind us, as autonomous analysts and advocates, that technology, regulation and infrastructure are worthless without users.

We believe that one solution lies in user education, leading to better awareness, acceptance and adoption. Feedback from the experts interviewed as part of this study has stressed an urgent need to improve communication around autonomous vehicles to not only make sure an appropriate message is heard by people, but also to familiarize future users with the technology. Moreover, we recommend that mobility players should focus the debate on safety and dependability as a true replacement for the status quo, rather than on technology and software. In this report, we suggest concrete actions to facilitate a “people-onboarding” process to ensure as a smooth a transition towards autonomous and shared mobility as possible.

The mobility ecosystem will experience such a disruptive time that now is the moment to rethink the relationships between not only existing (and new) players, but also future incumbents. We are strong believers in the virtue of partnerships and suggest six scenarios for OEMs and their partners.

We have also revisited the importance of private ownership on the journey towards shared and autonomous mobility. Our investigations allowed us to understand the six main drivers impacting on future AV private ownership:

1. Regulation
2. Culture
3. Environment
4. Finance
5. Demographic trends
6. New private ownership models

Finally, we identified some preferred first-use alternative uses for autonomous vehicles, such as accommodation and medical transport. Understanding future business opportunities related to these features is essential to forecasting the entrance of potential incumbents envisioning mobility as a marketing tool.
1. Introduction

This study is based on proprietary research (n = 3,002, representative sample, UK) conducted by Neckermann Strategic Associates, together with 7th Sense Research, in May–June 2019. For a more global perspective, we augmented this study with global research from the BofAML and other highly-respected institutions. Neckermann Strategic Advisors also conducted in-depth interviews with over two dozen experts from nine countries in the field of connected and autonomous mobility, seen to be leading in the human adoption of new technologies (Figure 1). Our interview partners have been carefully chosen across academia, business, government and from practitioners in the field of autonomous technology. Finally, we reviewed this study within our own network of experts.

Image 1 Geographic coverage of the study
Image can be double-clicked to enlarge

One core finding is that getting users out of privately driven, family-occupancy vehicles, and into shared, autonomous transportation represents a “double-leap” – equivalent to asking people to give up landlines and cameras in one fell swoop. As a comparison: even with the introduction of the smartphone, many still continued to have landlines, and many still retained cameras (not to mention fax machines, scanners and MP3 players) for a long time before finally leaping toward their singular replacement.

So, let’s be frank: those of us who monitor the evolution of smart cities, work in policy, or are proponents of autonomous and shared transportation, may not like the results of this study – the reluctance for a “double-leap” presents a challenge to established thinking. Yet it also means that – for an interim period – our community needs to be more deliberate in choosing transitional use-cases for the growing variety of vehicles.
Building a Framework

2. Autonomous vehicle studies: Yesterday and today

Interest in autonomous vehicles is not new. Like flying or exploring space, humans have dreamed about commuting with driverless cars in futuristic urban environments for almost a century. We believe that, as with airplanes, once the technology is fully developed, it will be commonplace.

One of the first prototypes to study the interaction between humans and autonomous vehicles came in the early 1920s in New York City. Houdina Radio Control Co. showcased its “Chandler” on Broadway. It was (briefly) called an “American Wonder” as it drove – remotely-controlled by an operator. 1 Their excitement was short-lived; the car crashed into another full of photographers covering the event. So, with the Houdina, the potential for human acceptance of driverless vehicles came to a crashing halt.

In 1925, the first driverless car rode down Broadway in NYC.

Image 2 The American Wonder - Houdina Radio Control Co.

Fast-forward – past the General Motors “Vision for Autonomous Driving” in the 1950s, and the remote-controlled Citroën prototypes of the 1960s – to the present day. Autonomous technology has evolved exponentially, resulting in a significant number of new studies, released on a frequent basis, by consultants, banks, automakers and tech companies.

Image 3 New York Times

After having collaborated with Progenium Management Consulting on the world’s first Autonomous Driving Index in 2017 (Figure 1), we’ve seen new adoption indices from across the consulting spectrum. Grand visions and forecasts now abound on what the future will look like in an autonomous ecosystem. Most have conflated new mobility business models such as carsharing and ridehailing with the technology.

Figure 1 Based on expert interviews and research, Progenium’s Autonomous Driving Index in 2017 evaluated the weighting of various elements impacting the roll-out of autonomous vehicles.