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354 pages

English

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In Looking Forward, Marifeli Perez-Stable and her colleagues imagine Cuba's future after the "poof moment"—Jorge I. Domínguez's vivid phrase—when the current regime will no longer exist. Written in an accessible style that will appeal to all interested readers, this volume does not try to predict how and when the Castro regime will end, but instead considers the possible consequences of change. Each chapter—prepared by an expert in the field—takes up a basic issue: politics, the military, the legal system, civil society, gender, race, economic transition strategies, social policy and social welfare, corruption, the diaspora, memory, ideology and culture, and U.S.-Cuba relations.

The author of each chapter considers three questions: How have other new democracies handled the basic issue in question? How might Cuba's unique conditions affect this area in transition? What are the likely outcomes and alternatives for a Cuba in transition? Designed with students, policy-makers, and journalists in mind, this lively and accessible volume is an essential resource.

Sujets

Communisme

History

Diplomatie (homonymie)

Latin America

South America

Communism

Diplomacy

América del Sur

Histoire

POLITICAL SCIENCE

International Relations

Political Ideologies

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Publié par	University of Notre Dame Press
Date de parution	01 septembre 2007
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9780268089757
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	92 Mo

Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,6250€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.

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LOOKING FORWARDrecent titles from the helen kellogg institute
for international studies
Scott Mainwaring, general editor
The University of Notre Dame Press gratefully thanks the Helen Kellogg Institute
for International Studies for its support in the publication of titles in this series.
Sylvia Borzutzky
Vital Connections (2002)
Alberto Spektorowski
The Origins of Argentina’s Revolution of the Right (2003)
Caroline C. Beer
Electoral Competition and Institutional Change in Mexico (2003)
Yemile Mizrahi
From Martyrdom to Power (2003)
Charles D. Kenney
Fujimori’s Coup and the Breakdown of Democracy in Latin America (2003)
Alfred P. Montero and David J. Samuels, eds.
Decentralization and Democracy in Latin America (2004)
Katherine Hite and Paola Cesarini, eds.
Authoritarian Legacies and Democracy in Latin America and Southern Europe (2004)
Robert S. Pelton, C.S.C.
Monsignor Romero (2004)
Guillermo O’Donnell, Jorge Vargas Cullell, and Osvaldo M. Iazzetta, eds.
The Quality of Democracy (2004)
Arie M. Kacowicz
The Impact of Norms in International Society (2005)
Roberto DaMatta and Elena Soarez
Eagles, Donkeys, and Butterﬂies (2006)
Kenneth P. Serbin
Needs of the Heart (2006)
Christopher Welna and Gustavo Gallón, eds.
Peace, Democracy, and Human Rights in Columbia (2006)
Guillermo O’Donnell, ed.
Dissonances (2007)
For a complete list of titles from the Helen Kellogg Institute for International
Studies, see http://www.undpress.nd.eduLOOKING
FORWARD
Comparative Perspectives on Cuba’s Transition
edited by
MARIFELI PÉREZ-STABLE
Foreword by Fernando Henrique Cardoso
University of Notre Dame Press
Notre Dame, IndianaCopyright © 2007 by University of Notre Dame
Notre Dame, Indiana 46556
www.undpress.nd.edu
All Rights Reserved
Designed by Wendy McMillen
Set in 10.6/14 Minion by BookComp, Inc.
Published in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Looking forward : comparative perspectives on Cuba’s transition / edited by
Marifeli Pérez-Stable.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13 : 978-0-268-03891-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-268-03891-0 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Cuba—Forecasting. 2. Cuba—History—1990 –
I. Pérez-Stable, Marifeli, 1949 –
F1788.L 576 2007
972.9106′40112 —dc22 2007019520In memory of my father,
Eliseo Pérez-Stable ( 1921 – 2005 )Contents
Foreword ix
Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Acknowledgments xv
Acronyms xix
Introduction 1
Marifeli Pérez-Stable
1 Looking Forward: Democracy in Cuba? 17
Marifeli Pérez-Stable
2 Cuba’s Civil-Military Relations in Comparative
Perspective: Looking Ahead to a Democratic Regime 47
Jorge I. Domínguez
3 The Cuban Constitution and the Future Democratic
Transition: Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe 72
Gustavo Arnavat
4 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: The Normalization
of Cuba’s Civil Society in Post-Transition 96
Damián J. Fernándezviii Contents
5 Gender Equality in Transition Policies: Comparative
Perspectives on Cuba 119
Mala Htun
6 Race, Culture, and Politics 138
Alejandro de la Fuente
7 Strategy for a Cuban Economic Transition 163
Jorge F. Pérez-López
8 Social Policy and Social Welfare 187
Carmelo Mesa-Lago
9 Escaping the Corruption Curse 212
Daniel P. Erikson
10 The Émigré Community and Cuba’s Future 240
Lisandro Pérez
11 Ideology, Culture, and Memory: Symbolic Dilemmas
of the Cuban Transition 262
Rafael Rojas
12 Cuba’s Future Relations with the United States 280
William M. LeoGrande
Bibliography 309
Contributors 316
Index 319Foreword
Few countries have been the subject of so much controversy, debate, and
probing in the past four decades as much as Cuba. Some forty-six years
after the Revolution, Cuba continues to be a symbolic force far beyond
its small size and weak economy.
Interest in Cuban aﬀairs is once again rising, yet the reason is no
longer the Revolution as a role model for building new societies under
the nose of the world’s largest capitalist power. The issue now is the
question posed by the approaching demise of the principal leader of a
regime that will not survive him: Where is Cuba headed after Fidel?
To answer this question, Marifeli Pérez-Stable, the Cuban-born
author of The Cuban Revolution: Origins, Course, and Legacy—an essential
reference on the topic—has organized a collection of essays that attempt
to interpret the social, political, and economic transformations noted or
foreseen in Cuba as it enters a likely transition.
The traditional free hand of the essay writer is ﬁrmly in evidence
here. All authors start from a common point—Cuba’s domestic and
foreign aﬀairs, mainly since the fall of the Soviet Union. And as they search
for support for their perception of future trends, they employ
comparisons with political or economic transitions observed within the past
twenty years in Latin America, the former Soviet bloc, and East Asia.
The result is an all-inclusive, orderly review of all the possible
futures of Cuba. It ranges from classical transition studies (i.e., the role of
the military, the emergence of civil society, relations between émigrés
and the internal opposition, the role of outside actors) to issues closer
to the microphysics of power, such as race and gender relations and the
ideological and cultural dimensions of politics, which is essential to
ixx fernando henrique cardoso
understanding a regime that made a vast symbolic investment to
consolidate its power.
By treating three normally unconnected perspectives—institutions,
social relations, and ideology—as complementary, this book makes an
especially interesting contribution to the debate on Cuba after Fidel. Will
it be a market democracy, or perhaps a hybrid—a mixed economy with
a freer society still controlled by the heirs to the regime? If the former,
will change be abrupt or gradual? Will a transition necessarily do away
with the social gains made by the Cuban people, or will it be an
opportunity to augment them after years of economic crisis?
These questions elicit both hope and concern in those who have
been ﬁghting for democracy, equality, and peace in Latin America and
the Caribbean because in that long march Cuba stands as a special
chapter whose fate makes a great diﬀerence for the entire region.
By surviving the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba shifted this
transition to an era no longer ruled by the exultant liberal certainties of the late
1980s. We know now that transitioning to any kind of market economy
requires not the destruction but the reform of existing institutions, lest
the transition end in economic collapse and social breakdown. We also
know that building democracy is a gradual, rather uncertain collective
undertaking whose success depends on the old regime’s institutional
legacy and the ability of political actors to build institutions capable of
ensuring eﬀective citizenship.
For domestic and foreign actors, the lessons of the last two decades
advise a negotiated transition along with measures designed to build
economic conﬁdence and political tolerance. Absent gradual
conﬁdencebuilding measures, attempts to build a regime of increased freedoms will
make no progress. Instead, they may trigger a repressive backlash or the
emergence of criminal groups whose actions can turn a democratic state
into an utter impossibility and a market economy into a stage for
maﬁastyle warfare.
Paving the way for a successful transition in Cuba is an immense
responsibility. I am frankly skeptical of the chances here of an
Asianstyle transition such as Vietnam’s, with capitalism moving ahead under
a one-party system with a tight rein on society. For good or ill, Cuba is
part of the Western world. Therefore, I am of the view that demands forForeword xi
greater economic freedom will rise in tandem with increased demands
for greater political and civil liberties.
Both by act or omission, the United States is in a position to make
the outside winds blow for or against an orderly transition conducted
from within, which is why the increasingly unilateral stance of U.S.
foreign policy, particularly on issues regarded as part of the domestic
agenda, is of so much concern. Cuba ﬁts the bill, with a twist: in addition
to being on the security agenda, the presence of a highly politicized
émigré community in the crucial state of Florida also makes it part of the
electoral scenario. Thus, the type of smooth cooperation from both
sides of the Atlantic that proved so useful to the transition in Eastern
Europe would in this case appear to be that much more diﬃcult.
Though diﬃcult, cooperation is not impossible. As is to be expected
in a pluralistic society, many in the United States are now actively
questioning unilateralism and the notion that freedom and democracy—
values to which this great na