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134 pages

English

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Overview :
"A book on Technical Analysis written for the Investor

Yes, it is possible to use technical analysis for investing, not just trading! Technical analysis has always been seen as a tool for short-term trading rather than investing. Through this book, the author will share with investors an original approach to technically define the trend for the various time frames - Daily, Weekly, Monthly and so on. The book will reveal the consistent relationship between the time frames. It explains which time frame dictates a market's behavior and shows how to invest better with the knowledge of the larger time frames.

The book's second innovation is to help investors integrate technical trend, timing and price indicators for market entry and exit. This approach "integrates" signals from various technical tools rather than rely on signals from a single indicator, whether it be timing or price for entry and exit. This integrated approach has been effectively used by the author for investing for many years.

Learn :
• Time tested techniques to define a market's trend
• To integrate trend, timing and time indicators for optimal market entry and exit in trending and non-trending market environments
• About the two-way and three-way relationships between monthly, weekly and daily time frames
• How to invest better with the knowledge of the relationship of multiple time frames of markets

About the author

BC Low (CMT) has been a teacher-cum-practitioner in Technical Analysis since the 1980s. Low has published in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in September 2010 and November 2012. He has delivered many seminars to various financial institutions in Singapore and abroad. He was the President of the Singapore Technical Analysts & Traders Society (STATS) in 2011-13. Formerly a Senior Lecturer in Singapore Polytechnic, he developed and taught two modules of Technical Analysis from 1992 to 2011. He was the technical analyst at Merrill Lynch International Bank, and currently Low is President of Technical Analysis Consultancy, Singapore.

CONTENTS

Foreword

Chapter 1 Introduction
Technical Analysis is about Probability
Technical vs Fundamental Analysis
Where does Technical Analysis work best?
Holy Grail versus a Tool Box
Integration is Key
Technical Analysis is also for long-term investment

Chapter 2 Forecasting Trend with Price Action
Defining Trend with Price Levels
Defining Trend with Selected Price Patterns
Defining Trend with Selected Candlesticks

Chapter 3 Forecasting Trend with 10 & 40 Exponential Moving Averages
Moving Average Basics
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages Trend Signals
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages as Support/Resistance in Trending Markets
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages in Congesting Markets

Chapter 4 Price Targets with Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands Formulation
Applications in a Congestion
Applications in a Trending Market
Applications at the End of a Trend
Bollinger Bands Constraints

Chapter 5 Price Targets with Fibonacci Ratios
Fibonacci Basics
Retracement Projections
Expansion Projections
Tactical Issues in Fibonacci Technique

Chapter 6 Timing with Stochastics
Stochastics Structure
Stochastics Timing Signals in a Congestion
Stochastics Buy Timing in an Uptrend
Stochastics Sell Timing in a Downtrend
Why do Stochastics timing signals work in trends?
Stochastics Counter-trend Signals in a Trending Market

Chapter 7 Timing with Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD Formulation
MACD Trend Signal
MACD Divergence Signal
MACD Timing Signals
MACD & Stochastics Compared

Chapter 8 Integrating Trend, Timing & Price
Integrating 10/40 EMA Change of trend with Price Action
Integrating 10/40 EMA Change of trend with MACD
Integrating 10/40 EMA with various indicators in resumption of trend
Integrating Price with Stochastics in a Strong Trend
Integrating Candlesticks with Bollinger Bands & Stochastics in a Congestion

Chapter 9 Time Frames Technique for Long Term Investment

Defining Time Frame Technique
Benefits of Time Frame Technique
Time Frame Principles
4 Important Time Frame Relationships
Time Frame Guidelines
Making the Most of Time Frames

Chapter 10 Managing Positions
Fear and Greed
Pyramiding
Lower Price Stocks
Partial Exit
The "Crowded Trade"
Managing Long Term Positions
On Following Recommendations
Your Own Portfolio of Preferred Stocks
An Investment Model that Suits You.

Concluding Remarks

Sujets

Business

Economics

Personal Finance

Investing

Informations

Publié par	eBookIt.com
Date de parution	01 septembre 2014
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9789810911287
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	3 Mo

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Extrait

INTEGRATING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE INVESTOR

BC Low
Chartered Market Technician

Technical Analysis Consultancy
SINGAPORE
Published By:
Technical Analysis Consultancy
www.taconsultancy.biz
Singapore
Ebook Edition 2014
ISBN: 978-981-09-1128-7
Copyright ©2014 Technical Analysis Consultancy .
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or any means electronic or mechanical, without the written permission by the copyright owners or publisher.
While great care was taken in the preparation of this book, the author and publisher disclaim any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions, and they disclaim any liability for losses or damages incurred through the use of the information in this book.
This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute as a recommendation or solicitation of investment advice regardless of the form of your action. In no event shall the author or publisher be liable to any party for any damages, losses, expenses or cost whatsoever arising in any manner with the use of this book, or reliance on any information, materials provided at this book.

Dedicated to Connie,
Shi Ping & Shi Min
Acknowledgements
My wife, Connie Lim for her support and encouragement for me in writing this book. I am also thankful to Connie for reviewing this book’s content.
Ms Low Shi-Ping for editing the book, in making it more readable to the average reader.
Mr Lye Ming-Chye for his consistent help as webmaster and in all IT matters relating to Technical Analysis Consultancy including the publishing of this book.
Charts in this book are plotted with charting software, Metastock which I have had the privilege of using for many years.
CONTENTS
Foreword
Chapter 1 Introduction
Technical Analysis is about Probability
Technical vs Fundamental Analysis
Where does Technical Analysis work best?
Holy Grail versus a Tool Box
Integration is Key
Technical Analysis is also for long-term investment
Chapter 2 Forecasting Trend with Price Action
Defining Trend with Price Levels
Defining Trend with Selected Price Patterns
Defining Trend with Selected Candlesticks
Chapter 3 Forecasting Trend with 10 & 40 Exponential Moving Averages
Moving Average Basics
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages Trend Signals
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages as Support/Resistance in Trending Markets
10/40 Exponential Moving Averages in Congesting Markets
Chapter 4 Price Targets with Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands Formulation
Applications in a Congestion
Applications in a Trending Market
Applications at the End of a Trend
Bollinger Bands Constraints
Chapter 5 Price Targets with Fibonacci Ratios
Fibonacci Basics
Retracement Projections
Expansion Projections
Tactical Issues in Fibonacci Technique
Chapter 6 Timing with Stochastics
Stochastics Structure
Stochastics Timing Signals in a Congestion
Stochastics Buy Timing in an Uptrend
Stochastics Sell Timing in a Downtrend
Why do Stochastics timing signals work in trends?
Stochastics Counter-trend Signals in a Trending Market
Chapter 7 Timing with Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD Formulation
MACD Trend Signal
MACD Divergence Signal
MACD Timing Signals
MACD & Stochastics Compared
Chapter 8 Integrating Trend, Timing & Price
Integrating 10/40 EMA Change of trend with Price Action
Integrating 10/40 EMA Change of trend with MACD
Integrating 10/40 EMA with various indicators in resumption of trend
Integrating Price with Stochastics in a Strong Trend
Integrating Candlesticks with Bollinger Bands & Stochastics in a Congestion
Chapter 9 Time Frames Technique for Long Term Investment
Defining Time Frame Technique
Benefits of Time Frame Technique
Time Frame Principles
4 Important Time Frame Relationships
Time Frame Guidelines
Making the Most of Time Frames
Chapter 10 Managing Positions
Fear and Greed
Pyramiding
Lower Price Stocks
Partial Exit
The “Crowded Trade”
Managing Long Term Positions
On Following Recommendations
Your Own Portfolio of Preferred Stocks
An Investment Model that Suits You.
Concluding Remarks
FOREWORD
Although technical analysis has fascinated and inspired me for close to thirty years, it is not as widely accepted in the investor community. While I can understand why that is so, it is my hope that this book will change some attitudes towards technical analysis by showing how it can help the investor in the important investment decisions. I hope that the ideas in this book will help investors get more out of their investor dollars.
Many books on technical analysis have been written with the professional trader in mind. These books often deal with complex topics which maybe beyond the interest of the average investor. Other books adopt an ‘encyclopaedia’ approach which maybe too much for the average investor whose needs are less.
I believe the average investor seeks to learn key aspects of technical analysis to to satisfy three important needs –firstly to identify a market’s trend, secondly to identify reliable timing signals to enter and exit a position; and thirdly, to identify the price levels to enter and exit a position This book is written with these needs in mind.
However, this book is not intended to provide a “Black Box” to for investors to plug into. It will show how several public domain technical analysis tools can be better interpreted and integrated to help the investor. It begins with the author’s personal interpretations of technical indicators familiar to many, namely moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Ratios, Stochastics, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, selected price patterns and candlestick patterns. The approach is not to provide an exhaustive discussion of these techniques, since there are many other titles already in print to focus on each of the techniques covered. Rather it is to emphasize aspects of these techniques which when integrated and used together, will help the investor to combine the knowledge of a market’s trend with the timing and price levels to enter and exit a position.
The investor is not a trader. His concern is for the longer term and making returns from taking positions over the long run. Over the years, I have paid special attention to the issue of using technical analysis for the longer term. As such, I will share my original technique of Time Frames, developed in the 1990’s.
This book shares with investors the tools of technical analysis that I have used in the past 20 plus years. It draws on materials that have been used to educate a generation of students who studied technical analysis with me as part of a fulltime course in a Singapore college.
To those who already have some understanding of technical analysis, this book can add focus on integration, as well as the use of technical analysis for long term investment. To investors just starting out, I hope it will provide a strong framework so that technical analysis can be used to make investing a more profitable and enriching experience. Overall, I do hope this book will make a real difference to investors.
CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
Technical analysis is for the Investor too!
Technical analysis is the art and science that uses charting tools to tell us a market’s trend, the timing and price levels to enter and exit the market. My approach in technical analysis focuses on integrating these three aspects – trend, price and timing using a combination of the most effective tools in each area based on my observation and use of technical analysis. To me it is not enough to just know the various indicators individually, but integrating them to achieve better results.
Technical Analysis is about Probability
As in other methods of forecasting, technical analysis is about improving the probability of getting the market right. There is no certainty that a technical indicator will deliver sure-win results since markets do not conform completely to any fixed pattern for too long beyond rising and falling. But with so much progress made in technical analysis, the probability of getting it right can be higher. Investors should be able to depend on it than on gut feel or hearsay.
On the other hand, no matter how good technical tools become, one can never be certain of an indicator being correct all the time. In addition, there is the element of judgment in interpreting technical signals such that two persons using the exact same indicator at one time may hold opposing views! There is the element of subjectivity.
Technical vs Fundamental Analysis
Both technical and fundamental approaches use different types of information to arrive at a view. Technical analysis is based on signals from indicators which apply to price – closing price alone or high, low and closing prices of each trading period. The advantage of the technical approach is that when a technical indicator is applied to different markets, it produces similar signals. There is economy of effort in that once an investor knows how a particular indicator works, he can use it in practically all markets.
Fundamental analysis uses supply and demand information within a market, which may be peculiar to that market. A great deal of information and research is needed to secure the relevant and key market information to provide the view. And the effort has to be repeated for each market.
For them to be effective, both technical and fundamental analyses involve a lot of effort. But in my view, one should aspire to excel in one of the two approaches because when practised well, either one is capable of delivering results.
Where does technical analysis work best?
Technical analysis works best when the market is large and no one player or group of players has the means to influence its price for a considerable period of time. If a market is small and can be easily influenced, then tech