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105 pages

English

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As Recently As A Decade Ago, The Prospect Of India Becoming A Developed Country Any Time Soon Seemed A Distant Possibility. Since Then, However, There Has Been A Sea Change In Our Own And The WorldS Perception About Our Future. What Explains This Rising Tide Of Optimism? And How Far Is It Justified? In The Future Of India, Bimal Jalan, Former Governor Of The Reserve Bank Of India, Takes Up The Formidable Challenge Of Examining The Nuts And Bolts Of This Proposition. In His Thought-Provoking, Clear-Sighted Analysis, He Argues That It Is The Interface Between Politics, Economics And Governance, And Their Combined Effect On The Functioning Of Our Democracy, Which Will Largely Determine IndiaS Future. An Understanding Of This Interface Will Help Explain The Swings In IndiaS Political And Economic Fortunes Over The Past Decades, And Why The Promise Has Been Belied. In The Light Of Experience, Argues Jalan, There Is No Certainty That The Present Euphoria Will Last Unless There Is The Political Will To Seize The New Opportunities That Are Available. He Proceeds To Suggest Steps That Can Be Taken To Smoothen Our Path To Progress: Ways To Strengthen Parliament And The Judiciary; A Series Of Political Reforms That Would, Among Other Things, See Greater Accountability Among Ministers; And Effective Ways To Curb Corruption And Enhance Fiscal Viability. In All These There Is An Emphasis On The Pragmatic, Born Of JalanS Experience As An Administrator, Economist And Member Of Parliament. Contemporary And Topical, The Future Of India: Politics, Economics And Governance, Perhaps More Than Any Other Book On The Subject, Shows Just How A Future Close Enough To Be Seen Need Not Forever Remain Elusive To The Grasp.

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Economics

India

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Publié par	Penguin Books Ltd
Date de parution	02 juin 2006
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9789351181644
Langue	English

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BIMAL JALAN
The Future of India
Politics, Economics and Governance
PENGUIN BOOKS
Contents
About the Author
Dedication
Preface to the Second Edition
Preface to the First Edition
Introduction
ONE: The Triumph and Travails of Democracy
The Rewards of Freedom
The Functioning of India s Democracy
The Shrinking Role of Parliament
The Politicization of the Bureaucracy
An Overburdened Judiciary
TWO: The Economics of Non-performance
The Deadweight of the Past
The Power of Distributional Coalitions
The Disjuncture between Economics and Politics
THREE: The Crisis of Governance
The Poor in Shining India
The Myth of Collective Responsibility
The Failure of Administration
FOUR: The Supply and Demand of Corruption
The Economic Effects of Corruption
The Need for Institutional Reform
Supply-side Measures
Demand-side Measures
FIVE: The Reform of Politics
The Economic Role of the State
The Role of Small Parties
Elections to the Council of States
The Reform of Parliamentary Procedure
Epilogue
Footnote
Epilogue
References
Copyright Page
PENGUIN BOOKS
THE FUTURE OF INDIA
Bimal Jalan is one of India s well-known economists. He was Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 1997 to 2003, demitting office on his nomination to the Upper House of Parliament by the President for distinguished service to the country. He has held several top positions in the ministries of finance and industry and in the Planning Commission. He was also Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister and represented India on the boards of the IMF and the World Bank.
He was educated at Presidency College, Calcutta, and Cambridge and Oxford universities. His books include India s Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead (1991), India s Economic Policy: Preparing for the Twenty-first Century (1996), India s Economy in the New Millennium (2002) and, as editor, The Indian Economy: Problems and Prospects (Revised edition, 2004).
To Maahira and Ayushman, children of the twenty-first century, and their future
Look back, therefore, as far as you can, drink deep of the eternal fountains that are behind, and after that, look forward, march forward and make India brighter, greater, much higher than she ever was.
-Swami Vivekananda
The achievement we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that await us. Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?
-Jawaharlal Nehru, speech on the granting of independence.
Preface to the Second Edition
A new edition of a book provides a good opportunity to consider whether observations and assertions made in the previous edition require amendments in the light of reviews and other developments. After reflection, I believe that although the economic and political picture remains broadly the same as before, there is one vital difference. This is that the disjuncture between politics and economics that I had referred to (in chapter II ) has now become even more pronounced.
The economy is certainly more resilient and vibrant than was the case even a year ago. Growth rate is higher, inflation is lower, the external sector continues to be strong and the Sensex, the stock market index, is at an all-time high. There has been blossoming of Indian entrepreneurship. The Indian corporate sector is more confident now than ever before. The international accolade for India s economic future is louder, and there is a strong belief that India and China will be the dominant economies of the twenty-first century.
Domestic politics, on the other hand, has become more fluid and uncertain, particularly in the states. In several states, different combination of parties with widely divergent ideology and programmes have formed pre- or post-electoral alliances to acquire power. Fortunately for India, the Union government at the Centre has been stable under the leadership of a distinguished person who is universally admired for his integrity and high intellect. Despite internal differences as well as frequent disruptions, the Parliament has also unanimously passed several bills of historic importance, such as the Right to Information Bill, Women s Succession Bill, and Rural Employment Guarantee Bill. At the same time, hardly a week passes by when a fresh and bitter political controversy on a domestic or an external issue does not arise. This has made the efficient governance of the country difficult. It is also doubtful whether the government would have been able to survive in the face of several unsavoury episodes involving Cabinet ministers and dignitaries and judicial strictures (for example, in respect of dissolution of Bihar assembly in 2005)-but for the high personal credibility of its leader.
As politics has become curiouser and the economy has become more vibrant, a view is emerging-particularly among the better-off sections-that politics does not really matter all that much in determining economic outcomes. A central thesis of this book, on the other hand, is that effective governance and responsible politics are of utmost importance in shaping India s economic future. Is this conclusion still valid?
I strongly believe so. The crucial point that we must remember is that, after two or three years of high growth, exuberance about India s long-term economic future is not new. As highlighted in The Future of India, over the last fifty years, there have been at least three similar periods when the growth rate was as high as now, and everything looked very rosy. However, soon thereafter, the economy was plunged into prolonged periods of low growth and/or crises. It will also be recalled that, as recently as May 2004, when the earlier government was unexpectedly voted out of power, there was a sudden collapse of confidence, leading to a sharp decline in stock markets, because of political uncertainty. It will be premature to ignore the political role of the government in shaping the economic environment for growth with equity over the long run.
It is a sobering thought that, despite several favourable developments in the economy in the last decade, India continues to have the largest number of poor in the world, one of the lowest ranks in the global human development index, and a high degree of environmental pollution and deforestation. Public infrastructure, particularly in the rural areas, where the bulk of the people live, is by all accounts abysmal. The trend rate of growth of agriculture, which provides livelihood to 60 per cent of our population, has also been well below expectations. The share of India s agriculture in national income is now only about 20 per cent. The organized sector of the economy has grown, but employment has not increased.
Can all these negative features of India s socio-economic landscape be changed without strong government action, an efficient public delivery system and a responsive political environment? Over the long run, say ten or twenty years from now, can certain segments of the economy which benefit a minority of India s population, and some urban conglomerations, continue to grow at a high rate without purposive governmental action and political accountability for performance to the people at large (rather than to a handful of political leaders)? I have no doubt that the answer to both the questions has to be in the negative. If anything, the need for reform of the governance structure, the need to reduce the supply and demand of corruption, and the need to improve the functioning of our Parliamentary system are even more pressing now than before.
Except for correction of a couple of factual errors and redraft of a few sentences in the interest of greater clarity, the rest of the text in this edition is the same as the Viking edition published last year. The discussion by many experts and opinion-makers in public fora and the views expressed in journals and media reviews have been extremely helpful. I am grateful to all those who have participated in this debate.
21 February 2006
Bimal Jalan
Preface to the First Edition
T he Future of India: Politics, Economics and Governance is different in tone and content from my previous books. My earlier books dealt primarily, though not exclusively, with economic policy issues. There was a recognition of the political process and its impact on the evolution of economic policy over time. However, the primary focus was on economics. This book is much broader in content. It attempts to give equal, if not more, weight to politics and governance aspects in addition to economics, in determining the shape of India s economic policy and its social fabric. It is the interplay of these three forces-politics, economics and governance-which will jointly determine the future of India.
In my earlier books, while personal reflection could not be avoided altogether, to a large extent I had tried to be as analytical and objective as possible. This book is much more introspective, with a fair degree of personal reflection and impressions. On issues of public importance, I have taken the liberty of saying what I believe even though on several of them the historical evidence may be mixed or the theoretical basis may be inconclusive.
Fortunately, there is now considerable interest among specialists and observers belonging to different disciplines in Indian economic, social and political developments. The idea of writing this book evolved gradually as a result of reading the books of a number of eminent writers-economists, political scientists and philosophers-on a variety of subjects, including India s past and its future. A striking feature of most of the recent writings, cutting across different disciplines, is the universal admiration for India s democracy combined with dissatisfaction with its actual functioning and its failure to deliver sufficient benefits to the people. Another commo