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MarshallCavendish - Jeremy Kourdi

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52 pages

English

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What challenges are posed by the world economy for governments and businesses, and what changes are needed if we are to survive and prosper in the future? The strength of the world economy affects everyone. From Thessalonika to Shanghai, Indonesia to Illinois, the prosperity and economic security of billions of people is now bound together more closely than ever before. Overall, the economic news for the last two decades has been positive. Billions of people in traditionally poorer parts of the world are climbing out of poverty - but everyone's economic future is uncertain. As the world emerges from the largest economic crisis in peace time, it is painfully clear that economic cycles and shocks can be frequent, complex and severe.The book provides essential facts about the global economy, its regions and prospects. It also outlines current and future economic challenges, how they arose and why they matter, as well as demographic trends and key country strategic economic/business outlooks. Above all, the book highlights what changes are need to improve the global economy and what corporations need to do to survive and prosper in the new post-crisis world.

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Economics

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Publié par	MarshallCavendish
Date de parution	01 août 2012
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9789814398893
Langue	English

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THE ANSWERS:
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Nenad Pacek
Jeremy Kourdi is the Series Editor of The Answers series. He is a former vice-president of The Economist Group and is the author of 25 business books.
Cover design: Cover Kitchen
Copyright 2012 Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Pte Ltd Published in 2012 by Marshall Cavendish Editions
An imprint of Marshall Cavendish International 1 New Industrial Road, Singapore 536196 genrefsales@sg.marshallcavendish.com www.marshallcavendish.com/genref
Other Marshall Cavendish offices: Marshall Cavendish Corporation. 99 White Plains Road, Tarrytown NY 10591-9001, USA Marshall Cavendish International (Thailand) Co Ltd. 253 Asoke, 12th Flr, Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klongtoey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110, Thailand Marshall Cavendish (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd. Times Subang, Lot 46, Subang Hi-Tech Industrial Park, Batu Tiga, 40000 Shah Alam, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
Marshall Cavendish is a trademark of Times Publishing Limited
The right of Nenad Pacek to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Requests for permission should be addressed to the publisher. The author and publisher have used their best efforts in preparing this book and disclaim liability arising directly and indirectly from the use and application of this book. All reasonable efforts have been made to obtain necessary copyright permissions. Any omissions or errors are unintentional and will, if brought to the attention of the publisher, be corrected in future printings.
A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library
eISBN 978 981 4398 89 3
Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Mackays
Contents
Preface
1. Global Demographic Trends
2. The Evolution and Future of the World Economy
3. The Biggest Threats for the World Economy
4. The Impact on International Business
5. Strategic Economic and Business Outlooks
Afterword
Appendix: World Population by Country and Regions Today and in the Future
About the Author
Preface
You know the world is crazy when the best rap music is made by a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy and Switzerland holds America s cup in sailing.
- Chris Rock , US comedian and actor
You also know the world is crazy when you look at some of the following items:
I can buy oil or copper futures contracts just for fun, although I don t need copper or crude oil (and have no space to store it in my garage!).
I can buy the South African rand or the Turkish lira although I do not plan to build a factory there nor am I buying their exports (aside from grapes).
Although we are sitting on the largest accumulation of knowledge ever, there have been more economic crises in the last 35 years than in 350 years ago.
Economic science still builds most of its models around the assumptions that people are rational and that markets are efficient, always right and self-correcting (well, they are self-correcting, but before they do so, your company can become insolvent and illiquid).
Financial products that very few people understand are still being actively traded without enough questions from regulators about the systemic risks they pose to countries, ordinary people and companies.
Some countries in recession cut spending and increase taxes, ignoring the lessons from history that show this makes recessions worse in the short term and pushes countries deeper into a vicious cycle from which it is difficult to escape.
No one, except a few obvious crooks such as the Madoffs of this world, has been brought to justice for creating the largest credit bubble in history largely through dubious or downright fraudulent/criminal schemes of hiding and selling worthless liabilities to unsuspecting buyers.
There have only been weak attempts to address a large number of regulatory and economic issues that caused the last big global crisis. The world is therefore paving the way for another one or a series of crises, although none of them should have the magnitude of boom and bust of the last one.
I can go on and on. And I will.
When the publisher asked me to write a book about the Global Economy that should not exceed 20,000 words and highlighted what should be covered in it, I initially thought they forgot to put a zero at the end of the word count. I wondered how to approach such a complex topic using such few words. But the more I thought about it, the more I got excited about turning immense complexity into simple language that anyone can read. And although this book is partly about economics (and partly about business), you will not find any mathematical formulas or graphs that various economists use in order to appear smarter than they actually are (and believe me, there are many of those).
Considering the length of the book, I decided to focus on two groups of readers. First, corporate executives and entrepreneurs who must understand the world economy, its future, its dynamics, its regions and how all economic developments will impact their corporate strategies or entrepreneurial activities. Second, ordinary citizens of the world who just want to make sense of the often incomprehensible and frustrating world of economics that surrounds them.
I bring to this book a mix of professional experience that marries the world of economics, business and management:
In my day-to-day work I advise global and regional management of international companies on economic outlooks of all regions and almost all countries in the world and I continue to read any new interesting economic studies and research.
I have managed regional and global businesses and got my hands dirty in some of the toughest emerging markets.
I have been observing and proactively researching corporate best practices for international expansion for 20 years (as described in my previous two books on emerging markets and the latest one, The Future of Business in Emerging Markets , 2012).
I have travelled to over 90 countries (and counting) on business and chaired business events with over 100 Prime Ministers or Presidents (some of whom were knowledgeable and brilliant and some of whom knew less about economics or business than my plumber). Some others were knowledgeable crooks and some were unknowledgeable ones.
Through my business advisory work and public speaking at large and small corporate events, I meet hundreds of executives every year who run corporate or entrepreneurial activities in the international business arena. Their tremendous business insights are partly woven into this book, especially the section on corporate strategies for international business.
You will notice that I exchange my economics and business hats throughout this book and my hope is that you will find this useful and interesting. I aimed to make this book full of must know stuff rather than nice to know . You will also notice that due to the small size of the book, it naturally has its limitations. I focused on items that are closely linked to economy and business and chose not to discuss items such as environmental issues, for example. Also, the explanations for certain developments are often shorter than I would have liked. Many other topics I wanted to discuss simply did not fit this concise format.
This book would not be possible without the continued support of my wife Antonija who is still (just) tolerating my long hours in front of my notebook. My gratitude goes also to my ten-year-old daughter Nina who would like to spend more time with me. I feel a bit less guilty about my newborn Alina, who just gives me endless smiles. My two girls are my biggest motivators and I wanted to write a book that will hopefully help make the world in which they will live a bit better than it is today.
The book would also not be possible without thousands of interactions with corporate executives and entrepreneurs and their generously shared views and insights into international business challenges and strategies. I am also deeply grateful to hundreds of authors, economic researchers and journalists who have made massive contributions to our understanding of the economic issues and challenges we have been facing and continue to face.
Nenad Pacek Austria
Maybe this world is another planet s hell.
- Aldous Huxley
If an intelligent alien civilization had been observing our planet with a giant telescope from outer space for the last 100,000 years, they would have been astonished how this small planet at the outskirts of the Milky Way galaxy has changed in the last 200 years or so, since the start of the so-called Industrial Revolution. During the night, they would have noticed ever-increasing areas of night light. They would have noticed progressively more movement of various transportation devices, more smoke from factories and houses, shrinking forests and more and more people unevenly distributed on the relatively small land surface.
What this distant picture can t tell the observing aliens, however, is the sheer scope of demographic change the planet has endured in its recent history.
Our planet has gone through a massive population explosion. Economic science and many governments around the world have been unable to cope with the continuing rise in population (witness growing social unrest in many countries around the world). And I do not expect this to change any time soon. Executives and entrepreneurs should look at the demographic explosion as an opportunity and find ways to benefit, but also - through good corporate citizenship - improve societies in which they operate. The more they help improve the societies around the world with new investments, the bigger their sales opportuniti