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The third installment of the ‘European Public Investment Outlook’ series is an important and timely publication that draws together recent analyses to recommend significant increases in public investment in green ventures. Compelling data from key economists affiliated with international organizations like the International Monetary Fund, European Investment Bank and the European Commission, as well as academic departments and policy institutes are a clarion call for green investment to boost the economy and put the planet on a sustainable path.

Like its predecessors, the book presents the issues in a lucid and navigable manner. Part I explores the EU’s current levels of green public investment, as well as the challenges ahead in achieving net zero carbon emissions after years of decreasing funding and the obstacles presented by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The public investment trends of France, Germany, Italy and Spain are systematically evaluated, as well as the REPowerEU policy – accelerated in Spring 2022 – to move away from Russia’s supply of fossil fuels. Part II focuses on the investment needed for green transition; the important economic and fiscal effects and benefits this would bring; and the reality of what is required before 2030 to achieve the EU’s carbon-neutral targets by 2050.

Greening Europe is essential reading for economists, environmentalists, and policymakers. It should also be of interest to anyone who wants to understand the cost implications of the ‘carbon-neutral’ policies that governments have promised, and the urgent need to change our approach towards energy usage.

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Public Finance

Economie gestion

Economics

Business

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Publié par	Open Book Publishers
Date de parution	12 décembre 2022
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9781800649088
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	12 Mo

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Greening Europe

Greening Europe
2022 European Public Investment Outlook
Edited by Floriana Cerniglia and Francesco Saraceno

https://www.openbookpublishers.com

© 2022 Floriana Cerniglia, Francesco Saraceno. Copyright of individual chapters is maintained by the chapters’ authors.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the text; to adapt the text for non-commercial purposes of the text providing attribution is made to the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Attribution should include the following information:
Floriana Cerniglia and Francesco Saraceno (eds), Greening Europe: 2022 European Public Investment Outlook . Cambridge, UK: Open book Publishers, 2022, https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0328
Further details about CC BY-NC licenses are available at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
All external links were active at the time of publication unless otherwise stated and have been archived via the Internet Archive Wayback Machine at https://archive.org/web
Updated digital material and resources associated with this volume are available at https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0328#resources
Every effort has been made to identify and contact copyright holders and any omission or error will be corrected if notification is made to the publisher.
ISBN Paperback: 9781800649057
ISBN Hardback: 9781800649064
ISBN Digital (PDF): 9781800649071
ISBN Digital ebook (epub): 9781800649088
ISBN Digital ebook (azw3): 9781800649095
ISBN XML: 9781800649101
ISBN HTML: 9781800649118
DOI: 10.11647/OBP.0328
Cover image: Photo by Dylan Leagh on Unsplash
Cover design: Jeevan Nagpal

Contents
Acknowledgements xi
Preface xiii
Franco Bassanini, Alberto Quadrio Curzio, and Xavier Ragot
Introduction xvii
Floriana Cerniglia and Francesco Saraceno
References xxv
Part I: Outlook 1
1. Challenges for Public Investment in the EU: The Role of Policy, Energy Security and Climate Transition 3
Andrea Brasili, Atanas Kolev, Debora Revoltella, and Jochen Schanz
Introduction 3
1.1 Public Investment in the EU: Trends and Outlook 4
1.4 Capital Transfers Are Set to Remain above Average 12
1.5 Security of Energy Supply and the Climate Transition 13
1.6 Energy Dependence Indicators 13
1.7 Improving Security of Energy Supply in the EU: REPowerEU 17
1.8 Conclusion 20
References 21
2. Public Investment and Low-carbon Transition in France: Not Enough of a Good Thing? 23
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Paul Malliet, Mathieu Plane, Frederic Reynes, Francesco Saraceno, and Alexandre Tourbah
Introduction 23
2.1 Public Investment before the Pandemic: On a Downwards Trend since 2010 23
2.2 Public Investment during the Pandemic 29
2.3 Challenges and Perspectives of Low-carbon Investment: The Case of Infrastructures 30
2.4 Modelling Framework: The ThreeME Model 34
2.5 Macroeconomic Consequences of Additional Investment in Low-carbon Infrastructure 34
Conclusion 38
References 39
3. Public Investment in Germany: Squaring the Circle 41
Katja Rietzler and Andrew Watt
3.1 A Decade of Investment 41
3.2 Some Progress since 2019 42
3.3 War in Ukraine and High Inflation 44
3.4 Stability Programme Suggests that Additional Investment Is Mostly Military 45
3.5 The Critical Issue of Local Government Financing 47
3.6 The German Recovery and Resilience Plan 49
3.7 The Way to Sufficient Investment Spending 50
References 51
4. NRRP—Italy’s Strategic Reform and Investment Programme: Sustaining an Ecological Transition 55
Giovanni Barbieri, Floriana Cerniglia, Giuseppe F. Gori, and Patrizia Lattarulo
Introduction 55
4.1 Public Investment and the NRRP-Italian Public Works Schedule 56
4.2 Ecological Transition and Green Investments in the Italian NRRP 60
4.3 Related Reforms 65
4.4 Multilevel Governance and the Role of Local Governments 66
4.5 Conclusions 68
References 70
5. Current Challenges in the Spanish Energy Market 71
José Villaverde, Lucía Ibáñez Luzon, Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente, and Adolfo Maza
Introduction 71
5.1 Evolution of the Spanish Energy Sector: A Retrospective Review 71
5.2 Public Policies for a Green Transition (2020–2030) 75
5.3 Current Scenario after the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine 79
5.4 REPowerEU 80
5.5 Final Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 83
References 84
Part II: Challenges 85
6. How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers? 87
Nicoletta Batini, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Giovanni Melina, and Anthony Waldron
Introduction 87
6.1 Results 88
6.2 Green Energy versus Non-Green Energy Spending Multipliers 89
6.3 Green Land Use versus Non-Green Land Use Multipliers 91
6.4 Conclusions 93
References 94
7. Europe’s Green Investment Requirements and the Role of Next Generation EU 97
Klaas Lenaerts, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
Introduction 97
7.1 Overall Priorities 98
7.2 A More Detailed Examination 100
7.3 Conclusion 104
References 105
8. The Public Spending Needs of Reaching the EU’s Climate Targets 107
Claudio Baccianti
Introduction 107
8.1 A Sectoral View of the Public Spending Needs in the EU 108
8.2 Conclusion 124
References 125
9. The Investment Needs for REPowerEU 129
Miguel Gil Tertre and Bert Saveyn
Introduction 129
9.1 Drivers of Natural Gas Demand Reduction in REPowerEU 131
9.2. Investment Needs 132
9.3 Why Should the Potential for Natural Gas Reduction Be Higher than 155 bcm? 140
9.4 Conclusion 141
References 142
Annex on Price Trajectories between 2020 and 2050 for Gas, Oil and Coal 142
10. Public Spending for Future Generations: Recent Trends in EU Countries 145
Lorenzo Ferrari and Valentina Meliciani
Introduction 145
10.1 GFCF and EFG in the EU 147
10.2 Trends in the EFG in the EU and Comparisons with the GFCF 148
10.3. Comparative and Absolute Advantage: International Comparisons 156
10.4 Conclusions and Policy Considerations 162
References 164
11. Assessing the Quality of Green Finance Standards 165
Xi Liang and Hannah Gao
11.1 What Are Green Finance Standards? 166
11.2 What Are the Differences between Green Finance Standards? 170
11.3 Nuclear and Natural Gas as Green Investments? 171
11.4 Does Green Finance Product Deserve Public Financial Incentive? 172
References 175
12. Green Investments: Two Possible Interpretations of the “Do No Significant Harm” Principle 177
Claudio De Vincenti
Introduction 177
12.1 The DNSH Principle in the EU Documents 177
12.2 An Evaluation: The Need to Get out of an Impasse 179
12.3 An Open Mind Approach to the DNSH Principle 182
12.4 The War, REPowerEU and Taxo4 183
12.5 We Need a Flapping of Wings 185
References 185
13. Towards a Socially Just Green Transition: The Role of Welfare States and Public Finances 187
Cinzia Alcidi, Francesco Corti, Daniel Gros, and Alessandro Liscai
Introduction 187
13.1 The EU Initiatives to Address the Socio-Ecological Transition 189
13.2 How to Tackle the Persisting Social Infrastructural Gap in the EU 190
13.3 A European Golden Rule for Social Investment 192
13.4 Amortisation of Public Investments 195
13.5 Conclusions 196
References 197
Contributor Biographies 201
List of Illustrations 211
List of Tables 213

The Outlook is the result of a joint effort by several economists belonging to a wide range of academic institutions and policy institutes; they all wrote in their personal capacity.
The work was coordinated by Floriana Cerniglia and Francesco Saraceno with logistical and financial support by CRANEC—Centro di ricerche in analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore—Milan; Fondazione Astrid, Rome; and OFCE-SciencesPo Paris.
The authors are affiliated to the following institutions: Agora Energiewende (Germany) Astrid (Italy) Bruegel (Belgium) Cabinet Belgian Minister of Social Affairs and Health CRANEC, Centro di ricerche in analisi economica e sviluppo economico Internazionale, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan (Italy) Center for European Political Studies—CEPS, Brussels (Belgium) European Commission, DG Energy, Brussels (Belgium) European Investment Bank, EIB Fondazione Astrid—Rome (Italy) German Council of Foreign Relations International Monetary Fund, IMF Istituto Regionale Programmazione Economica della Toscana—IRPET (Italy) Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium) La Sapienza University, Rome (Italy) Luiss School of European Political Economy, Università Luiss Guido Carli, Rome (Italy) Macroeconomic Policy Institute―IMK (Germany) Netherlands Economic Observatory, Rotterdam—NEO (Netherlands) Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research—TNO (Netherlands) Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques, OFCE-SciencesPo, Paris (France) Solvay School of Université Libre de Bruxelles—ULB, Brussels (Belgium) Universidad de Cantabria (Spain) Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Seville (Spain)

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