Strategic Decision-Making in Presidential Nominations , livre ebook

State University of New York Press - Kenny J. Whitby

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122 pages

English

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What is the dominant force in presidential nomination campaigns? Are nomination outcomes decided largely by the political party or by the candidates and their activities? In Strategic Decision-Making in Presidential Nominations, Kenny J. Whitby aims to provide some answers to these important questions, focusing on the closely contested 2008 race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It was this race that spotlighted the role played by "superdelegates," the unpledged party elites who were added to the nomination process in the 1980s. Whitby's central argument is that superdelegates are strategic actors and their endorsements are a response to a variety of demographic, institutional, and campaign factors. While some weigh in early with an endorsement, many adopt a wait-and-see approach. Using a novel framework generally known as survival analysis, Whitby provides us with a method for understanding when and why party elites decide to chime in on their presidential nomination campaign.
List of Illustrations
Acknowledgments

1. Introduction: Party Elite Survival in Presidential Nominations

2. Historical Context of Superdelegates

3. Superdelegates in the Presidential Nomination Process

4. The Invisible Primary

5. The Primary Season

6. The Politics of Attrition

7. Conclusions and Implications

Appendix A: Summary Statistics for Variables, the Invisible Primary 2007
Appendix B: Summary Statistics for Variables, the Primary 2008
Appendix C: Summary Statistics for Variables, Entire Period

Notes
Bibliography
Index

Sujets

Political party

Informations

Publié par	State University of New York Press
Date de parution	23 décembre 2013
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9781438449210
Langue	English

Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,1598€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.

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Strategic Decision-Making in Presidential Nominations
Strategic Decision-Making in Presidential Nominations
When and Why Party Elites Decide to Support a Candidate
K ENNY J. W HITBY
Published by State University of New York Press, Albany
© 2014 State University of New York
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission. No part of this book may be stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission in writing of the publisher.
For information, contact State University of New York Press, Albany, NY www.sunypress.edu
Production by Ryan Morris
Marketing by Michael Campochiaro
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Whitby, Kenny J.
Strategic decision-making in presidential nominations : when and why party elites decide to support a candidate / Kenny J. Whitby.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: “Evaluates how democratic presidential nominations are, using the historic race between Senators Obama and Clinton as a test case”
—Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-1-4384-4919-7 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Presidents—United States—Nomination. 2. Presidents—United States— Nomination—History—21st century. 3. Primaries—United States. 4. Primaries—United States—History—21st century. 5. Political science— United States—Decision making. I. Title.
JK522.W45 2014 324.5—dc23
2013002449
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Illustrations
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 Introduction: Party Elite Survival in Presidential Nominations
Chapter 2 Historical Context of Superdelegates
Chapter 3 Superdelegates in the Presidential Nomination Process
Chapter 4 The Invisible Primary
Chapter 5 The Primary Season
Chapter 6 The Politics of Attrition
Chapter 7 Conclusions and Implications
Appendix A Summary Statistics for Variables, the Invisible Primary 2007
Appendix B Summary Statistics for Variables, the Primary 2008
Appendix C Summary Statistics for Variables, Entire Period
Notes
Bibliography
Index
Illustrations
Figures
1.1 Conceptual Framework for Determinants of Time-to-Endorsement by Party Elites
3.1 Cumulative Superdelegate Endorsements over Time in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process, Entire Period
4.1 Superdelegates’ Endorsements over Time, Invisible Primary 2007
4.2 Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates for Superdelegates, Invisible Primary 2007
4.3 Estimated Survivor Functions in Invisible Primary 2007
5.1 Cumulative Pledged Delegate Count over Time, Primary 2008
5.2 Superdelegates’ Endorsements over Time, Primary 2008
5.3 Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates for Superdelegates, Primary 2008
5.4 Estimated Survivor Functions in Primary 2008
6.1 Superdelegate Endorsements over time in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process, Entire Period
6.2 Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates for Superdelegates over Time in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process, Entire Period
6.3 Predicted Survivor Functions in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process, Entire Period
Tables
2.1 Percentage of Major Democratic Elected Officials at Democratic National Convention, 1956–84
3.1 Superdelegates as a Percentage of all Delegates, 1984–2008
3.2 Allocation of Superdelegates to States and Territories of the United States for the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process
3.3 Superdelegates at the 2008 Democratic National Convention
4.1 Major Democratic Party Candidates for the Presidential Election of the United States, 2008
4.2 Democratic Candidate Finances during the Invisible Primary, December 2007
4.3 Invisible Primary Poll Standings of Democratic Presidential Contenders in December, 2007
4.4 Weibull Model for Superdelegates’ Endorsement in the 2007 Invisible Primary (Overall Model)
4.5 Logit Model for Superdelegates’ Choice in the 2007 Invisible Primary
4.6 Weibull Models for Superdelegates’ Endorsement in the 2007 Invisible Primary (Clinton and Obama Models)
5.1 Number of Democratic Presidential Caucuses and Primaries in the Fifty States
5.2 The 2008 Democratic Party Primary Calendar
5.3 Weibull Model for Superdelegates’ Endorsement in the 2008 Primary (Overall Model)
5.4 Logit Model for Superdelegates’ Choice in the 2008 Primary
5.5 Weibull Models for Superdelegates’ Endorsement in the 2008 Primary (Clinton and Obama Models)
6.1 Weibull Model for Superdelegates’ Endorsement for the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process
6.2 Logit Model for Superdelegates’ Choice in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process
6.3 Weibull Models for Superdelegates’ Endorsement in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process
6.4 Logit Model for Superdelegate Uncommitment in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process
Acknowledgments
This book evolved out of my fascination with two major events that took place during the 2008 contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The first event focused on the historic nature of the contest. This was the first U.S. presidential election in which an African American (Senator Barack Obama) and a female (Senator Hillary Clinton) had a realistic chance of capturing a major party’s nomination. Indeed, it became obvious to many political pundits relatively early in the campaign that one of the two candidates would become the party’s presidential nominee.
The second event focused on “superdelegates.” These unpledged party leaders and elected officials came on the public’s radar in 2008 as a consequence of the drawn-out and competitive Democratic contest between Clinton and Obama. Unlike pledged delegates, who are elected or chosen within a state at a designated level with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the national convention, superdelegates would be free to support any presidential candidate they wished for the nomination. Their status as free agents at the national convention was a source of concern for many citizens. In the tightly contested race between Clinton and Obama, this meant that superdelegates might be in a position to hold the balance of power if no clear winner emerged from the primaries. The idea that superdelegates could use their status to choose a candidate and perhaps overturn the “will of the people” seemed elitist and undemocratic to many observers.
As a student of American politics, I have long been interested in the democratic nature of the political process. The 2008 presidential nomination process was an opportunity for me to examine the concept of democracy from the standpoint of leadership selection and party politics. For most of this nation’s history, political parties played a crucial role in the selection of candidates to run for public office. In recent decades, the role of the parties in the electoral process has declined somewhat mainly due to an increase in the number of presidential primaries. The primary system was introduced to make the presidential selection process more democratic by involving rank-and-file party members in the nomination process. It is one of the most significant changes in the nomination process in recent decades.
The result of reform changes has led to an important scholarly debate on presidential nominations that centers on the following question: Who controls presidential nominations? More specifically, Are presidential nominations decided largely by party insiders or by candidate-centric factors? To a large degree, this book addresses the foregoing questions by examining the endorsement decisions of superdelegates in the presidential nomination process. The conclusions in this book are important because they have implications for the democratic selection of leadership in America.
The presidential election is a protracted event in which actors weigh the costs and benefits of their actions with some goal in mind. In the context of this study, the actors are party elites, that is, superdelegates. The central argument throughout this book is that superdelegates are deciding to endorse or withhold an endorsement based on some strategic calculation that involves timing. For example, an endorsement of a candidate at a given point during the course of the nomination campaign might be an attempt to affect the voting decision of other actors. Or, an endorsement of a candidate might be in response to campaign factors that occur at various points in the process. In either case, the conceptual and methodological approach used in this study should help us to better understand the strategic decision-making of party elites in presidential nominations.
Debts of gratitude are due to many individuals. I am especially indebted to Lee Walker, a close colleague and friend, who steered me in the right direction when I began this research endeavor. As graduate director in my department, he also gave me the research assistance I needed to carry out the investigation. I am also heavily indebted to William “Bill” Kreml for his excellent comments and suggestions on the manuscript. He gave the manuscript a careful reading. He has always been a clo