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Why do some attempts to conclude alliance treaties end in failure? From the inability of European powers to form an alliance that would stop Hitler in the 1930s, to the present inability of Ukraine to join NATO, states frequently attempt but fail to form alliance treaties. In Arguing about Alliances, Paul Poast sheds new light on the purpose of alliance treaties by recognizing that such treaties come from negotiations, and that negotiations can end in failure.In a book that bridges Stephen Walt's Origins of Alliance and Glenn Snyder's Alliance Politics, two classic works on alliances, Poast identifies two conditions that result in non-agreement: major incompatibilities in the internal war plans of the participants, and attractive alternatives to a negotiated agreement for various parties to the negotiations. As a result, Arguing about Alliances focuses on a group of states largely ignored by scholars: states that have attempted to form alliance treaties but failed. Poast suggests that to explain the outcomes of negotiations, specifically how they can end without agreement, we must pay particular attention to the wartime planning and coordinating functions of alliance treaties. Through his exploration of the outcomes of negotiations from European alliance negotiations between 1815 and 1945, Poast offers a typology of alliance treaty negotiations and establishes what conditions are most likely to stymie the attempt to formalize recognition of common national interests.

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Diplomacy

International relations

Diplomatie (homonymie)

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Publié par	Cornell University Press
Date de parution	15 novembre 2019
Nombre de lectures	0
EAN13	9781501740251
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	4 Mo

Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,7500€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.

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ARGUING ABOUT ALLIANCES

ARGUING ABOUT ALLIANCES The Art of Agreement in MilitaryPact Negotiations

PauL POaST

CORNELL UNIVERSITY PRESS ITHACA AND LONDON

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

First published 2019 by Cornell University Press

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: Poast, Paul, author. Title: Arguing about alliances : the art of agreement in militarypact negotiations / Paul Poast. Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identiﬁers: LCCN 2018060432 (print) | LCCN 2019012808 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501740251 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501740268 (ret) | ISBN 9781501740244 (cloth : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Alliances. | Treaties—Interpretation and construction. | International organization. | Security, International. Classiﬁcation: LCC JZ1314 (ebook) | LCC JZ1314 .P63 2019 (print) | DDC 327.1/16—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018060432 Cover cartoon: Poker & Tongs; or, how we’ve got to play the game. Kaiser: “I go threedreadnoughts.” John Bull: “Well, just to show there’s no illfeeling, I raise you three.”Punch, January 8, 1908.

Contents

List of Illustrations Acknowledgments

Introduction: The Fragility of Alliance Diplomacy

vîî îx

1. A Theory of Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes14 2. Measuring War Planning and Negotiation Outcomes45 3. Analyzing Alliance Treaty Negotiation Outcomes64 4. A Key Nonagreement: The 1901 AngloGerman Negotiations107 5. An Important Agreement: The 1948–49 North Atlantic Treaty Negotiations135

Conclusion: Negotiations and the Future of Alliance Studies

Notes Bibliography Index

169

181 217 237

Illustratîons

1.1. Negotiation Types and Expected Negotiation Outcomes 17 1.2. Examples of Each Alliance Treaty Negotiation Type 33 1.3. Empirical Implications of War Plans and Negotiation Outcomes 42 2.1. Number of Military Alliance Treaty Negotiations Involving European Countries, 1815 to 1945 51 2.2. BritishFrench Common ThreattoTotalThreat Ratio Compared to Global SScore, 1815 to 1945 56 2.3. Offensive Dominance, 1815 to 1945 (by year) 62 3.1. Predicted Probability of Agreement 84 3.2. Substantive Effect of Both Strategic and Operational Compatibility on Probability of Agreement 85 3.3. Substantive Effect of Both Strategic and Operational Compatibility, Models with Alternative or Additional Controls 87 3.4. Substantive Effect of Both Strategic and Operational Compatibility, Sensitivity Analyses Results 91 4.1. Europe in 1901 113 4.2. Yellow Sea Region, 1901 114 5.1. Europe in 1948 151

vîî

Acknowledgments

This project took a long time. I want to make this clear. By describing the path from initial idea to the book in your hand, my hope is that a graduate student realizes the numerous people involved in writing a “solo” project and how re search projects require numerous “back to the drawing board” moments. The original data on failed military alliance treaty negotiations were collected as part of my dissertation at the University of Michigan. My dissertation was not about military alliances per se or even about military negotiations. Instead, it was a series of connected papers evaluating the effectiveness of issue linkage as a means of reaching and maintaining agreements. I was inspired to pursue this topic after discovering the Alliance Treaty Obligation and Provision (ATOP) data in a course with Barabara Koremenos. Within those data, I found that some alliances had economic cooperation provisions. William Roberts Clark then helped me to think through the reasons states would ﬁnd economics a useful instrument and James Morrow guided how I conceived of issue linkage within the context of alliances. Walter Mebane then led me through the painstaking process of ﬁguring out how to evaluate the effectiveness of issue linkage offers. I realized that this required data on successful and failed negotiations. While evidence of the former was located in ATOP, the latter required creating a wholly new dataset. That is when, after a suggestion by Morrow, I began reading diplo matic histories with the hope of identifying failed negotiations. I eventually submitted the core chapter of the dissertation to the journalIn ternational Organization. During the review process, an anonymous referee sug gested that a future project could explore alliance treaty negotiation failure itself (not solely as a means of exploring issue linkages). Once that paper was accepted atInternational Organizationand the other papers of my dissertation were pub lished, I set out to write the paper suggested by that reviewer. I worked on the paper during my ﬁrst three years as an assistant professor at Rutgers University. I completely rewrote the paper on numerous occasions, but none of these drafts was ever submitted to a journal. Each new draft was leading to either a methodological or a theoretical dead end. I continued to have difﬁculty making the paper, for lack of better terminology, “work.” Mind you, this road block was all on me. I was receiving immensely helpful suggestions from numer ous individuals, namely, Jeff Arnold, Leonardo Baccini, Brett Benson, Benjamin

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