Benchmark Revisions 2007 CRE8OP

CRE8 Occasional Report No. 2007-01 Post-Casting Employment in the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Revised Data for Metro Areas Michael R. Pakko and Howard J. Wall March 9, 2007 Post-Casting Employment in the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Revised Data for Metro Areas ∗Michael R. Pakko and Howard J. Wall A great deal of effort goes into forecasting future levels of economic activity, and most people appreciate the difficulties that are faced in making any such forecasts. There is significantly less appreciation, however, for the difficulties faced in determining economic performance in the recent past. In fact, all kinds of economic data undergo revisions over time, meaning that our view of the past is constantly changing. Sometimes, the revised data tell a story that differs greatly from what was told by original data. This is especially true of employment data for metro areas. On March 8, 2007, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest annual benchmark revisions to the payroll employment data for every metro area in the United States. Monthly employment estimates going back to April 2005 were affected by these revisions. In addition, new population controls resulted in small revisions to the data that go further back in time. The latest revisions meant significant changes in our perception of the health of metro areas. This paper briefly discusses the impact ...