The Impact of the 1976 NIPA Benchmark Revision on the Structure and Predictive Accuracy of the BEA Quarterly

This PDF is a selection from an out of print volume from the National Bureauof Economic ResearchVolume Title: The U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: SelectedTopicsVolume Author/Editor: Murray F. Foss, Ed.Volume Publisher: University of Chicago PressVolume ISBN: 0 226 25728 2Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/foss82 1Publication Date: 1982Chapter Title: The Impact of the 1976 NIPA Benchmark Revision on theStructure and Predictive Accuracy of the BEA Quarterly Econometric ModelChapter Author: Bruce Grimm, Albert HirschChapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7789Chapter pages in book: (p. 333 382)7 The Impact of the 1976 NIPA Benchmark Revision on the Structure and Predictive Accuracy of the BEA Quarterly Econometric Model Bruce T. Grimm and Albert A. Hirsch 7.1 Introduction This study investigates the effects of the January 1976 benchmark revi-sion of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) on both the structure of a working quarterly econometric model—that is, on its estimated parameter s and, where changes are warranted, on its specifica-tion—and on the accuracy of model predictions. The pubHshed revision included definitiona l and classificational revisions of historical data as well as statistical revisions from 1959 1 through 1975 III. For purposes of the present study, however, the definitional and classificationa l revisions have been removed from the pubUshed data, because only the statistical component of the ...