Multi-objective Decision Analysis, livre ebook

Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Acknowledgments ...................................................................................ix
Chapter 1 Introduction to Multiobjective Decision Analysis ..............1
Chapter 2 Structuring Objectives and Developing Alternatives ........19
Chapter 3 Value Functions and Preference Weights ..........................45
Chapter 4 Uncertainty: Probability Distributions and
Expected Value ................................................................73
Chapter 5 Uncertainty: Risk Tolerance and Expected Utility ............95
Chapter 6 Multiobjective Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty .....111
Chapter 7 Conclusion ....................................................................133
Notes..................................................................................................145
References ...........................................................................................151
Index .................................................................................................157