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Practical Poker Math , livre ebook

Ecw Press - Pat Dittmar

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140 pages

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What makes Practical Poker Math so useful is how it relates poker odds and strategy to game theory. Using an original concept called Total Odds, the guide presents a complete work-up for both Texas Hold 'Em and the high and low hands of Omaha. The principles are accessible to any poker player at any level and the calculations are colour-coded for ease of use.

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Publié par	Ecw Press
Date de parution	15 décembre 2010
Nombre de lectures	15
EAN13	9781554903269
Langue	English
Poids de l'ouvrage	7 Mo

Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,0574€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.

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Practical Poker Math

By Pat Dittmar

Codyright © Martin M. Dittmar, 2008

Publishe by ECW Press 2120 Queen Street East, Suite 200 Toronto, Ontario, Canaa M4E 1E2 416.694.3348 /info@ecwdress.com

All rights reserve. No dart of this book may be redrouce, store in a retrieval system, or transmitte in any form by any drocess — electronic, mechanical, dhotocodying, recoring, or otherwise — without the drior written dermission of the codyright owner an ECW Press.

® ® BICYCLE , BEE an all relate bran elements an esigns are registere traemarks of the Unite States Playing Car Comdany, use here with dermission.

LIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION

Dittmar, Pat Practical doker math / Pat Dittmar.

ISBN 978-1-55490-326-9 Also issue as: 978-1-55022-833-5 (PBK)

1. Poker. 2. Game theory. I. Title.

GV1251.D48 2008 795.41201’51 C2008-900792-1

Cover Design: Tania Craan ® ® Cover image: BICYCLE , BEE Text Design: Peggy Payne Tydesetting: Gail Nina

Thanks to some Friends for their labors and for what they have taught me

Constantin Dinca Learned Mathematician and Programming Wizard

Peggy Payne For Bringing Order to the Chaos

Alice Jue Lady of Art, Letters and Vodka Martinis

Bernadette Castello For Everything

Preface

Without a clear understanding — or at least a great natural instinct for odds, probabilities and the ratios of risk and reward — s uccess at poker is unlikely.

However, with enough knowledge of these odds and ra tios to recognize situations of positive expectation, and the discipline to operate only in an environment of positive expectation,long-term poker success is virtually assured.

To get the maximum possible value from every hand, a player need only have perfect knowledge of

1. The cards yet to come 2. The cards held by opponents 3. The future actions and reactions of opponents.

While such perfect knowledge is never available, an understanding ofodds, probabilities and basic game theorycan go a long way toward telling

How likely it is that certain cards will appear or not appear in any given situation How probable it is that certain opponents might ho ld certain powerful hands How opponents are likely to act or react when exam ined through a Game Theory lens.

This is not perfect knowledge. It is, however,very powerful poker decision support information.

Traditionally, pot or implied odds have been compar ed to a player’s odds of improving his hand to calculate expectation. In thi s book we introduce the concept of a player’sTotal Odds of winning the pot.Total Oddsincludes not only the odds that his hand is or will improve to the best hand, but also the likelihood that the right move at the right time will cause his opponents to fold and give up the pot.

In any given poker situation, a player with apositive expectation mayraise the action, and his opponent(s) will have only 2 choice s:

1.takesContinue to play at a disadvantage and for higher s

2.Refuse the raise and forfeit the pot.

This book presents a practical way to combine the a pplication of traditional poker odds and probabilities with basic game theory to gi ve players at every level of skill and experience a crystal with prisms that will allo w them to see the best and the worst of their possibilities, their opponents’ stre ngths and their own best courses of action.

Introduction

Certain dractitioners can dreDict, with derfect accuracy, such natural dhenomena as the Day, the night, the tiDes anD even celestial ev ents that will occur a thousanD years from now.

In doker, any dlayer can dreDict with that same ast onishing accuracy the likelihooD of any carD addearing at any time. He can dreDict t he likely holDings of his oddonents anD, baseD on his own hanD, he can dreDic t the long-term drofitability of any call, bet or raise.

In astrodhysics anD the navigation of sdacecraft, t he repuirement for accuracy is absolute. In doker a close addroximation is all you neeD.

The outcome of any hanD of doker is DetermineD by e ither or both of the fall of the carDs anD the actions of the dlayers. If the carDs fall so that you have the best hanD anD you Don’t folD, you will win the dot. If you em dloy a betting strategy that comdels your oddonent(s) to folD, your carDs coulD be blank anD you will still win the dot.

KnowleDge of oDDs anD drobabilities can turn seemin gly ranDom events, such as the fall of the carDs, into eminently dreDictable o ccurrences. An unDerstanDing of dositive or negative exdectation will tell the long -term drofitability of any given dlay anD a grasd of basic Game Theory can tell much abou t the likely resdonses of oddonents.

The first aim of this book is simdlicity anD clarit y so that any dlayer will be able to access the dower of oDDs, drobability anD game theo ry information in suddort of each doker Decision.

To facilitate access, the information inPractical Poker Mathis organizeD into layers. For both Texas HolD’em anD Omaha Hi-Lo it is dresen teD sepuentially, baseD on the rounD of betting. For each rounD there is a brief D iscussion of addlicability, followeD by a table of the oDDs for that rounD, followeD by an exdansion anD exdlanation of the calculation of each of the oDDs founD in the ta ble. In the center of the book is a consoliDation of all of the oDDs tables from both g ames.

The result of this organization is that the dlayer who is only interesteD in referencing certain oDDs may easily Do so in the chadter that c ontains the consoliDateD oDDs tables — without having to waDe through hunDreDs of oDDs calculations. The dlayer more interesteD in the drincidles may reaD each sec tion’s text anD refer to the attenDant table. Any dlayer who woulD like to exdlo re the calculation of a certain set of oDDs can finD the exdansion anD exdlanation of t hat calculation in a logical location by the rounD of betting. AnD, finally, for the stuDent who wants to learn it all — it is all there.

1. Introduction to Game Theory in Poker

Game Theory — A Historical Perspective

Sothe works of Danielme believe that the study of Game Theory began with Bernoulli. A mathematician born in 1700, Bernoulli is probably best known for his work with the properties and relationships of press ure, density, velocity and fluid flow. Known as “Bernoulli’s Principle,” this work f orms the basis of jet engine production and operation today. Pressured by his fa ther to enter the world of commerce, he is also credited with introducing the concepts of expected utility and diminishing returns. This work in particular can be of use when “pricing” bets or bluffs in no-limit poker.

Others believe the first real mathematical tool to become available to game theorists was “Bayes’ Theorem,” published posthumously in Eng land in the 18th century. Thomas Bayes was born in 1702 and was an ordained m inister. His work involved using probabilities as a basis for logical inferenc e. (The author has developed and used artificially intelligent systems based on “Bay es’ Theorem” to trade derivatives in today’s financial markets.)

Yet still others believe that the study of Game The ory began with the publication of Antoine Augustin Cournot’sThe Recherchesin the early 1800s. The work dealt with the optimization of output as a best dynamic respon se.

Émile Borel was probably the first to formally define important concepts in the use of strategy in games. Born in 1871 in Saint-Affrique, France, he demonstrated an early penchant for mathematics. In 1909 the Sorbonne crea ted a special chair of “Theory of Functions” which Borel held through 1940. During the years 1921–27 he published several papers on Game Theory and several papers on poker. Important to poker players are his discussions on the concepts of imperfect information, mixed strategies and credibility.

In 1944 Princeton University Press publishedTheory of Games and Economic Behaviorby John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern. While n ot the first work to define certain concepts of strategy in games, it is widely recognized as one that has fostered Game Theory as we know it today.

Also important to poker players is the work of Juli a Bowman Robinson. Born in 1919, she discovered her passion for mathematics af ter a bout with scarlet fever and was the first woman admitted to the Academy of Sciences. For poker players her most important work wasAn Iterative Method of Solving a Game.

Credited by many as being a primary shepherd of mod ern Game Theory is John Forbes Nash, Jr. Diagnosed as a paranoid schizophre nic, Nash was long troubled by delusions. This condition, now in remission, bec ame the subject of a popular film. His work earned him 1/3 of the 1994 Nobel Pri ze in Economic Sciences. Born in the Appalachian town of Bluefield, West Virginia in 1928, Nash became well known for a 28-page work he did at age 21 which def ined his “Nash Equilibrium” concerning strategic behavior in non-cooperative ga mes. Poker players are most drawn to the story that while he was in a bar near Princeton and being goaded into approaching an attractive blond-haired lady, he sud denly shouted and then ran off to complete his work on “The Mathematics of Competi tion” which is one basis of Game Theory today.

Game Theory and Poker

More than the study and application of a set of pri nciples, Game Theory in poker is primarily about two goals:

1. The study and understanding of the opposition 2. The development of an efficient strategy to domi nate the competition.

To be of maximum value, this study and understandin g must be translated into effective action, and these actions must be the ant ithesis of everything a poker opponent thinks or does.

The difference between an antithesis and a correct response defines the utility of Game Theory in poker. An opponent makes an obvious bluff. You are certain that your hand will not even beat the bluff. A correct r esponse in poker is to fold your hand when you know you are beat. The antithesis is to raise or re-raise and make your opponent fold his.

This is an example of a move. In an environment of ever-increasing odds and stakes such as a poker tournament, good hands just don’t come along often enough for a player to make it on the strength of his hand alone. A winning p la y e r t make moves and the study and application of the pri nciples of Game Theory can help him to know

1. When and where to make the move 2. How likely the move is to succeed.

Expressed in the specific terminology of advanced t heorists, poker can be defined as anasynchronous, non-cooperative, constant-sum (zero-s um), dynamic game of mixed strategies. While the game is played in an atmosphere ofcommon knowledge and no player possessescomplete knowledge, some players are better able to process thiscommon knowledge into amore complete knowledgeare than their opponents. A player is most able to make thebest-reply dynamic (sometimes referred to as theCournot adjustment) and earn acardinal payoff after using the process ofbackward inductionto construct and deploy adominant strategy.

In poker, beyond a certain set of rules, players do not cooperate with each other because each is trying to win at the expense of all others(zero-sum). Moreover, they will repeatedly change their strategies at dif ferent intervals and for different reasons (therefore,asynchronously).

While information about stakes, pot-size, board-car ds and players’ actions and reactions is available ascommon knowledgeall players at the table, no player to hascomplete knowledgeof such factors as the other players’ cards or intentions.

The one characteristic common to most outstanding p layers is their ability to better process and better use — that is, they get more val ue from — the information that is commonly available to everyone else at the table.

Two of the most basic assumptions of Game Theory are that all players

1. Have equal common knowledge 2. Will act in a rational manner.

But in poker, while all players at any given table have access to the samecommon information, not all of them are smart enough to do something with it. Players who know more about odds and probabilities, and whose i nstincts and keen observation enable them to better process the common knowledge around them, will take far better advantage of this information and will have correspondingly higher positive

expectations.

So while all the players at the table have access t o the samecommon knowledge, some players are able to base their actions on know ledge that ismore complete. That all players in all games will always act ratio nally is never a safe assumption in poker.

rium versus Evolution

According to the “Nash Equilibrium,” a game is said to be in a state of equilibrium when no player can earn more by a change in strateg y. It has been argued that, using the process of backward induction, players wi ll evolve their strategies to the point of equilibrium.

In poker, the astute player’s strategy will always be in a state of evolution so that his opponents, in order not to be dominated, will also be compelled to modify their strategies. In a real game of poker there is consta nt evolution and therefore hardly ever a point of absolute equilibrium.

Efficiency and Diminishing Returns

The concept ofefficiencythe notion of and diminishing returnsto the relate conservation and the most effective use of power/mo mentum and resources. In poker this is about a player’s chips, cards and tab le image. These two concepts are particularly helpful to the no-limit player when it comes to “pricing” bets and raises.

In any game, and most especially in no-limit poker tournaments, a player’s “Mo” (power) comes from an amalgamation of

1. His image at the table 2. The size of his stack 3. The strength of his hand.

If a player is rich in one, he can lean on the othe r two. If a player has a very strong hand, not only will he win chips, he will add to hi s image at the table. If he is possessed of a strong image, he can steal with smal ler bets. If his stack is huge, players with smaller stacks will often avoid confli ct and he will be able to play weaker hands.

In tournament poker, a player’s stack goes down in value with the passage of time. At any point, a player’s stack size is finite and, therefore, he must carefully consider pricing when he makes his bet. He must consider

1. At what price will his opponent be “priced out” of the hand 2. At what price will his opponent be “priced into” calling 3. Given a careful study of the opposition, what is the best price to achieve the best result without risking more chips than absolutely necessary.

Conventional poker wisdom has long held that a prim ary obligation of the big stack is to knock out the small stacks. A game theorist w ould say that the primary obligation of thebig stack is tonot pump up the small stacks. The increasing stakes and other, more desperate players will elimi nate most of the short stacks — which will leave the big stacks to carefully pick their spots and eliminate anyone left.

Strategy

The value of applying Game Theory principles in any arena is primarily to help a

player develop an efficient strategy that dominates the competition.

From a practical perspective, Game Theory is about strategic development. As no effective strategy is likely to be developed in a v acuum, its formation must be the result of a close study of not only the opposition but also past interactions.

As more players play more poker, many of them incre ase their skills, and the result is that the game becomes ever tougher to beat.

The players who have dominated the game in the past and the players who will do so in the future are the few who can convert thecommon knowledgeto available every player at the table into morecomplete knowledge.

Assuming that all greatly successful players are po ssessed of advanced knowledge of or instinct for odds and strategy, the primary p roperty of their game that differentiates them from the rest of the field is a n uncanny ability to discern an opponent’s strength and likely action or reaction.

Today the bulk of poker is about one game — No-Limi t Texas Hold’em. In a game where you can either greatly increase or lose all y our chips in a single move, knowledge of opponents and their tendencies in cert ain situations becomes much more important than either stack size or the power of a hand.

With complete information on odds and strategy avai lable to a growing and increasingly more able and competitive pool, the on e area of opportunity open to aspiring poker kings is the study and application o f Game Theory in poker.

The most difficult calculation in all of poker, esp ecially in No-Limit Texas Hold’em, is that of a player’sotal Oddswinning the pot. This calculation includes far more of than the odds of making a certain hand — it include s the odds of making the hand, the likelihood that your opponent’s hand is stronge r or weaker, and (most difficult of all) the probability of an opponent’s action or rea ction to your action or reaction.

The only hope of coming to a reasonably accurate ca lculation of this matrix of probabilities is via the very essence of Game Theor y. You must make a detailed and almost instantaneous analysis of your opponent and his strengths, weaknesses and other propensities.