A War on Terror , livre ebook
214
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English
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2004
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214
pages
English
Ebooks
2004
Obtenez un accès à la bibliothèque pour le consulter en ligne En savoir plus
Radically assessing George W. Bush's security policy, the impact it has had on world security and the grave implications that it holds for future peace, not only in the Middle East but throughout the world come to light. Moving from the war in Afghanistan and its aftermath to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, the continuing development of al-Qaida and its associates through to the war on Iraq, Rogers presents a uniquely cogent analysis of these rapid and traumatic events. In a world in which the US and other states of the Atlantic community are increasingly speaking a different language to that of the majority of the world, Paul Rogers offers a vital critical assessment of the language of dominance and control as 'the New American Century' unfolds.For the US, in particular, the post-9/11 world is one in which it is essential to maintain firm control of international security, extending to pre-emptive military action. In this book, Rogers demonstrates how futile, mistaken and deeply counter-productive that belief is, and points the way to more effective routes to a more just and secure world.IntroductionAcknowledgements1. War in Afghanistan I2. War in Afghanistan II3. A New American Century?4. Consequences of War5. Israel and Palestine6. Winning or Losing?7. Endless WarAfterwordIndex
Voir
A WAR ON TERROR
Afghanistan and After
Paul Rogers
P Pluto Press LONDON • STERLING, VIRGINIA
First published 2004 by Pluto Press 345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA
www.plutobooks.com
Copyright © Paul Rogers 2004.
20166–2012, USA
The right of Paul Rogers to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN ISBN
0 7453 2087 2 hardback 0 7453 2086 4 paperback
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Rogers, Paul, 1943– A war on terror : Afghanistan and after / Paul Rogers. p. cm. ISBN 0–7453–2087–2 –– ISBN 0–7453–2086–4 (pbk.) 1. War on Terrorism, 2001– 2. Terrorism––Government policy––United States. 3. National security––United States. 4. United States––Foreign relations––2001– I. Title. HV6432 .R64 2004 973.931––dc22
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Designed and produced for Pluto Press by Chase Publishing Services, Fortescue, Sidmouth, EX10 9QG, England Typeset from disk by Stanford DTP Services, Northampton, England Printed and bound in Canada by Transcontinental Printing
2003018193
Acknowledgements
Contents
Introduction 1 War in Afghanistan – I 2 War in Afghanistan – II 3 A New American Century? 4 Consequences of War 5 Israel and Palestine 6 Winning or Losing? 7 Endless War Afterword
Index
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Acknowledgements
My main thanks go to the people who makeopenDemocracyhappen. As one small part of their activities, and on a weekly basis, they turn my contributions into finished articles, embedding a range of links to other sites in the process (www.opendemocracy.com). Special thanks go to Anthony Barnett who got me involved in this endeavour in the first place, but I greatly appreciate the help of all of the staff, especially David Hayes, Susan Richards, Bola Gibson, Caspar Henderson and Rosemary Bechler. Over the period covered by this book I have been involved with the Oxford Research Group, a remarkable group of people who work with policy formers on nonviolent alternatives to conflict and achieve notable results on a minimal budget. Working with Scilla Elworthy of ORG has resulted in a series of reports on the impact of 9/11 and the subsequent ‘war on terror’, and the discussions and advice from ORG staff in connection with these has been an invaluable source of ideas for analysing events. In trying to make some kind of sense of the ‘war’, it has been extraordinarily helpful to have had so many discussions with staff and students in the peace studies department at Bradford University. Photocopies of relevant articles appear as if by magic, missed news items are pointed out, and disagreements kindly voiced. I have worked with one of my colleagues, Malcolm Dando, over a number of years. Immediately after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, Malcolm said to me that the real significance of the tragedies would be that it would enable the Pentagon ‘hawks’ and their associates to do whatever they wanted. Nearly two years later, that remains the case. Paul Rogers 4 August 2003
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Introduction
OpenDemocracybegan as an independent not-for-profit web journal early in 2001. It developed over 18 months into a widely read inter-national source of information on ideas before its more formal launch on 4 November 2002. Since then it has grown substantially and has a readership numbering in the many tens of thousands stretching across the world. It describes itself as ‘a channel for knowledge, learning, participation and understanding that is not owned by a media corporation, does not serve a special interest and does not adhere to a single ideological position’. It intends to be a vehicle for democratic change and for closing the gap between people and power, and maintains an emphasis on dialogue and the sharing of knowledge ‘across borders and differences’. Following an initial commentary on the immediate consequences of the attacks in New York and Washington on 11 September 2001, one of the columns established on the website was concerned with global security, the intention being to try and attempt an ongoing analysis, on a weekly basis, of the anticipated war in Afghanistan and the wider US responses to the 9/11 attacks. In an earlier book (Losing Control), I argued that unless the United States responded uncharacteristically after 9/11, looking for underlying causes rather than concentrating almost entirely on rigorous counter-terrorism actions, it would lead all of us, including itself, into a world of greater chaos. So it has proved, and since 9/11 theopenDemocracycolumns have sought to chart the development of the ‘war on terror’, with all of the problems that have arisen. The Global Security column has become an established feature of openDemocracyand has covered a wide range of themes. They include issues such as missile defence, the weaponisation of space, nuclear strategy and the South Asian confrontation, but the primary concern has been with the aftermath of 9/11, the US security posture, Afghanistan, the Middle East and President Bush’s ‘war on terror’.
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Many of the conclusions have proved correct or partially correct and some have proved wrong – you must judge for yourself. Hopefully, and in a world of turmoil, this book will help provide a record for people concerned with world affairs, a record they can identify with and relate to. The emphasis throughout is on trying to analyse and understand what is happening on all of these issues, more or less as they happen, and to try and predict their implications for the near-term and even for the more distant future. Lacking any advantage of hindsight, this is a risky thing to attempt, but it does have the advantage that the columns, as they accumulate, give a sense of what appeared to be most significant at the time. Often, in later examinations of issues of peace and conflict, events and people that were significant at the time can easily be sidelined. ‘Real time analysis’, as in these articles, may help to avoid that and assist in maintaining a more comprehen-sive perspective. As such, they may serve to complement the more conventional forms of analysis produced months, years or decades after the events they seek to understand. It was in the hope that such an approach might be of use that this collection of articles from the Global Security column ofopen Democracyis published here. The individual columns are reproduced almost exactly as published, with just minor grammatical corrections and some avoidance of repetition, but no adjustments in analysis. They are grouped into seven chapters, each with an introduction to set them in context. This set of articles covers the period from October 2001 to December 2002 and concentrates primarily on Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, the United States and al-Qaida and its associates. Some mention is made of the developing crisis with Iraq, but that is in many ways a separate and very substantive issue. It is not central to this particular set of articles and perhaps deserves more detailed attention on another occasion.
1 War in Afghanistan – I
Almost immediately after the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington, the al-Qaida network was identified as responsible for the atrocities, and its host Taliban regime in Afghanistan was thus seen as a prime part of the enemy in President Bush’s declared ‘war on terror’. There was therefore some surprise that the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan did not start for several weeks. People remembered President Clinton’s rapid use of cruise missiles against targets in Sudan and Afghanistan in response to the bombing of US embassies in East Africa, and there was an expectation of immediate retaliation. In practice, such attacks would have been little more than symbolic, and the US military therefore developed plans for much more sub-stantial military action, aware of the requirement to finish the war before the onset of winter. The main problems for the military were the lack of nearby bases from which to launch an attack, and the risk to US troops of engaging in ground conflict against Taliban and al-Qaida guerrilla forces. This chapter records developments over the first eight weeks of the war and shows the importance of the use of Northern Alliance forces in combination with US air power. Essentially, the United States took the option of taking sides in the long-running Afghanistan civil war, even though the human rights record of the Northern Alliance was little better than that of the Taliban. For the first four weeks of the war, there appeared to be little progress with the US war aims, but the impact of the rearming of the Northern Alliance forces in combination with the US bombing campaign was crucial and ultimately had its effect. At the same time, and even within just a few weeks of the start of the war, two other issues were becoming apparent. One was that there were significant civilian casualties being caused, partly through targeting errors and
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partly through the use of area impact munitions (AIMs). The other was that there were already signs that the Taliban and al-Qaida groups were frequently withdrawing rather than fighting, a tactic that was to have long-term significance, given that the US military had little interest in a lengthy presence in Afghanistan. In the wider ‘war on terror’, there were already firm indications that the security hawks in Washington had their sights set on the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. There were also two further devel-opments that provided markers for the future. One was the substantial number of people taken into custody in the United States, coupled with a presidential directive establishing military courts for the trial of foreign nationals. The other was the decision to allow the CIA to undertake assassinations of presumed terrorists overseas.
From Afghanistan to Iraq? 15 October 2001
Although most of the media has given an impression of a massive air bombardment, the reality is of a fairly low-level air war, for two different reasons. Firstly, the United States is unable to use bases in the region for bombers or strike aircraft, only for special operations forces, reconnaissance aircraft and drones, or special functions such as aerial refuelling. It is therefore reliant on aircraft flying from carriers operating well offshore in the Arabian Sea, from Diego Garcia or, in the case of the B-2 stealth bomber, from bases in the United States. As a result, on some recent nights, fewer than ten targets were attacked. While the B-2 bombers deliver large numbers of bombs, they fly from the US to Afghanistan and then on to Diego Garcia, where fresh crews fly them back to the US. The whole sortie takes nearly 70 hours, the planes need detailed maintenance and the US only has 21 of them, with perhaps 14 operational at any one time. It is unlikely they can use more than three in any one night. Strike aircraft launched from carriers need aerial refuelling. The carriers have a limited number of small tanker aircraft, but the US is also relying on RAF tankers flying out of Oman. Extraordinary as it might seem, USAF tankers are not configured to refuel US Navy planes. Such operational difficulties severely limit the capability of
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the US to maintain aircraft loitering over Afghanistan looking for ‘targets of opportunity’. The second reason for the limited strikes is that there are few readily available targets. The Taliban regime is not configured like a conventional army and air force – there are very few planes and helicopters and few large barracks or troop concentrations. The forces are essentially infantry and guerrilla forces. Their mode of operation stems from the Soviet occupation of the 1980s, when Afghan resistance groups found it effective to organise in dispersed groups of 20–200 fighters. In the last few days, air defences and mostly obsolete aircraft have been destroyed quickly, and the primitive command and control systems have also been damaged, as have the few bunkers that might have housed military commanders. Most of these are of no great value to the Taliban – in one case, a number of aircraft were destroyed on the ground in an air raid, but they had not been flown for more than a decade.
The limits of technology
Attempts have been made to target troop concentrations, and the US is now using ‘area impact munitions’ (AIMs) such as cluster bombs for this purpose. As the name implies, these are at the opposite end of the bombing spectrum from precision-guided laser bombs. They are designed from the start to cause destruction over the greatest area, and are used against ‘soft’ targets such as trucks, tented camps and people. A typical cluster bomb is actually a canister that dispenses around 150 ‘bomblets’, each of which detonates to spread up to 2,000 high-velocity shrapnel fragments, the whole bomb shredding anything or anyone within a couple of acres. Use of AIMs, especially from high altitude, means that civilian casualties are virtually certain. In any case, up to 10 per cent of cluster bomb munitions can fail to detonate, leaving behind what amount to anti-personnel land mines. Such bomblets have resulted in numerous injuries and deaths months and years after their use in the 1991 Gulf War, and will do so likewise in Afghanistan. Even without the use of AIMs, there have been problems with targeting precision-guided bombs. Incidents include the deaths of four UN workers early last week and two more recent events, one possibly
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involving more than 100 people killed. One reason may be that the National Imaging and Mapping Agency (NIMA) falls massively short of producing the digital databases that are needed to guide the bombs. These are rather like finely defined maps; they should give three-dimensional targeting co-ordinates accurate to within nine metres. According to a reliable report, regional commanders need 9,000 of these ‘maps’ to provide adequate coverage. As of late September, they were 5,000 short of this figure. In other moves, the US Navy is ordering 600 more sea-launched cruise missiles to replace stocks used in recent years against Iraq, Sudan, Serbia and Afghanistan. It is also asking for $4 billion in emergency spending on base and ship security. There is currently a worry that the massive aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea might be subject to suicide attacks, analogous to the New York and Washington attacks.
What next? The bombing may continue for some days, possibly with a pause to see if the Taliban will give up bin Laden (this seems unlikely, though they may make offers chiefly for propaganda purposes). Targets will become more difficult to find. There are indications that many Taliban units have been ordered to disperse into cities, towns and villages to await American ground troops. The al-Qaida network has up to 55 bases throughout Afghanistan, but these are not so much fully-fledged bases as locations used often on a temporary basis. Meanwhile, there is a divergence in Washington between military chiefs and the Pentagon’s politicians. The military want to continue the bombing rather than risk their elite Special Forces in any numbers, in view of the risk of a costly guerrilla war with winter coming on. Their political masters want Special Forces action. Increasingly, they see the military as out of touch with political realities. Within Afghanistan, there is considerable integration of the bin Laden forces into the Taliban armed forces. There is little doubt that they, too, will have spread out widely. There are also reports that much of the network has dispersed, many of its personnel even quietly leaving Afghanistan for neighbouring countries to the north and east. A dispersal could last months or years. Given local support in countries such as Pakistan, network personnel would be almost impossible to
