Stochastic information in the assessment of climate change [Elektronische Ressource] / von Thomas Christopher Kleinen

Stochastic Information in theAssessment of Climate ChangeDissertationzur Erlangung des akademischen GradesDoktor der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.)in der Wissenschaftsdisziplin Theoretische Physikeingereicht an derMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultätder Universität PotsdamvonThomas Christopher Kleinengeboren am 16.1.1973 in BraunschweigPotsdam, im Februar 2005bAbstractStochastic information, to be understood as “information gained by the application of stochasticmethods”, is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate.This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the considerationand reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists ofthree parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximityto a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to aprobabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability dueto climate change is conducted within the TWA.The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where thecirculation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change.Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of theTHC to the bifurcation point.