Une étude du comportement du produit nominal, par rapport à l’offre de monnaie, de 1854 jusqu’

Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros (GEMF) Av. Dias da Silva, 165 – 3004-512 COIMBRA, PORTUGAL gemf@fe.uc.pt http://gemf.fe.uc.pt JOÃO SOUSA ANDRADE Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854-1998) ESTUDOS DO GEMF N.º 6 2003 PUBLICAÇÃO CO-FINANCIADA PELA FUNDAÇÃO PARA A CIÊNCIA E TECNOLOGIA Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854-1998) João Sousa Andrade GEMF – Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra http://www2.fe.uc.pt/~jasa jasa@sonata.fe.uc.pt Abstract The Portuguese economy like other economies in occident has known some different monetary regimes since the middle of XIX century. We want to know if the quantity theory of money applied not to prices but to nominal income can explain the behaviour of nominal income in differ-ent monetary regimes. We concentrate on the periods used by economic historians and condensed them with the Bai-Perron methodology for identifying structural time breaks in time series. After deciding which periods to retain and knowing the stationarity characteristics of the money supply and the nominal income we applied the Johansen co-integration method to these series. Our conclusions are very interesting: the nominal income quantity theory of money can’t be applied to the gold standard regime. The empirical ...