La croissance française de l'après-guerre et les modèles macroéconomiques - article ; n°5 ; vol.27, pg 882-939

Revue économique - Année 1976 - Volume 27 - Numéro 5 - Pages 882-939
This paper outlines the different logical frameworks which have been used by macroeconomists to explain the growth observed in France since the second world war. From 1945 to 1969 three main arguments succeeded one another: the first one analyses the conditions of self sustained growth (Von Neumann type model) ; the second one describes how effective growth depends upon income sharing and demand formation key (keynesian' models) ; a last one takes into account the limit of growth in a highly open economy (« économie concurrencée » model).
Many models have been built since 1970, according to different streams : statistical refinements of the keynesian tradition, analysis of the linkage of the french economy to the world market, study of the impact of moyen and credit on economic activity, models of interaction between profit, investment and growth. The variety of these approaches is partially due to conflicting theoretical basis and to differences concerning the institutional purpose of these models (short term forecasting or medium term planning...) ; this evolution reflects also the difficulties in finding out the factors of the new macroeconomic regulation observed since the seventies The conclusion suggests that, if epistemological weakness of applied models was regonized more realistic macroeconomic models could be built through a more systematic analysis of the economic and social determinants of a given historical period and by a closer interaction between theoretical research and applied work.
This paper outlines the different logical frameworks which have been used by macroeconomists to explain the growth observed in France since the second world war. From 1945 to 1969 three main arguments succeeded one another: the first one analyses the conditions of self sustained growth (Von Neumann type model) ; the second one describes how effective growth depends upon income sharing and demand formation key (keynesian' models) ; a last one takes into account the limit of growth in a highly open economy (« économie concurrencée » model).
Many models have been built since 1970, according to different streams : statistical refinements of the keynesian tradition, analysis of the linkage of the french economy to the world market, study of the impact of moyen and credit on economic activity, models of interaction between profit, investment and growth. The variety of these approaches is partially due to conflicting theoretical basis and to differences concerning the institutional purpose of these models (short term forecasting or medium term planning...) ; this evolution reflects also the difficulties in finding out the factors of the new macroeconomic regulation observed since the seventies The conclusion suggests that, if epistemological weakness of applied models was regonized more realistic macroeconomic models could be built through a more systematic analysis of the economic and social determinants of a given historical period and by a closer interaction between theoretical research and applied work.
58 pages
Source : Persée ; Ministère de la jeunesse, de l’éducation nationale et de la recherche, Direction de l’enseignement supérieur, Sous-direction des bibliothèques et de la documentation.