Crime trends around the world

ARTICLE IN PRESS Environmental Research 104 (2007) 315–336 www.elsevier.com/locate/envres Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure Rick Nevin National Center for Healthy Housing, USA Received 12 August 2006; received in revised form 20 February 2007; accepted 23 February 2007 Available online 23 April 2007 Abstract Thisstudyshowsaverystrongassociationbetweenpreschoolbloodleadandsubsequentcrimeratetrendsoverseveraldecadesinthe USA,Britain,Canada,France,Australia,Finland,Italy,WestGermany,andNewZealand.Therelationshipischaracterizedbybest-fit 2lags(highestR andt-valueforbloodlead)consistentwithneurobehavioraldamageinthefirstyearoflifeandthepeakageofoffending for index crime, burglary, and violent crime. The impact of blood lead is also evident in age-specific arrest and incarceration trends. Regression analysisof average1985–1994murderratesacrossUSA citiessuggeststhatmurdercould beespecially associatedwithmore severe cases of childhood lead poisoning. r 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Lead poisoning; Crime; IQ; Behavior; Violence 1. Introduction and the early-1970s abortion of ‘‘unwanted’’ children, presumed more likely to offend (Donohue and Levitt, Crime trends can be related to demographic, cultural, 2001). Levitt admits this model cannot explain 1973–1991 economic,andlawenforcementtrends,butthesharp1990s trends,whencrimeandincarcerationratessurgedaspolice USA crime decline was not anticipated by such theories.