Risk assessment with regard to the occurrence of malaria in Africa under the influence of observed and projected climate change [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Volker Ermert

Risk assessment with regard to theoccurrence of malaria in Africa underthe influence of observed andprojected climate changeI n a u g u r a l - D i s s e r t a t i o nzurErlangung des Doktorgradesder Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultätder Universität zu Kölnvorgelegt vonVolker Ermertaus Kirchen/SiegKöln 2010Berichterstatter (Gutachter): Prof. Dr. A. H. FinkProf. Dr. M. KerschgensDr. A. P. MorseTag der mündlichen Prüfung: 23. November 2009AbstractMalaria is one of the most serious health problems in the world. The projected climatechange will probably alter the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Inthis study, potential changes in the malaria transmission are assessed by forcing threemalaria models with bias-corrected data from ensemble scenario runs of a state-of-the-art regional climate model.The Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) from the Geography Department of the Uni-versity of Liverpool is utilised. The LMM simulates the spread of malaria at a dailyresolution using daily mean temperature and 10-day accumulated precipitation. Thesimulation of some key processes has been modified in the model, in order to reflect amore physical relationship. An extensive literature survey with regard to entomologi-cal and parasitological malaria variables enables the calibration and validation of a newLMM version. Comparison of this version with the original model exhibits markedimprovements.