On intrinsic uncertainties in earth system modelling [Elektronische Ressource] / von Brigitte Knopf

On Intrinsic Uncertaintiesin Earth System ModellingD I S S E R T A T I O Nzur Erlangung des akademischen GradesDoktor der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.)in der Wissenschaftsdisziplin Theoretische Physikeingereicht an derMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakulta¨tder Universitat Potsdam¨vonBrigitte Knopfgeboren am 28.08.1973 in BonnPotsdam, im Juni 2006Ignorance is a situation in which man may be enclosedas narrowly as in a prisonSimone de Beauvoir (1908-86)“Pour une morale de l’ambiguit´e”, 1947Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilitiesGeorge Eliot (1819 - 1880)AbstractUncertainties are pervasive in the Earth System modelling. This is not just due to a lack ofknowledge about physical processes but has its seeds in intrinsic, i.e. inevitable and irreducible,uncertainties concerning the process of modelling as well. Therefore, it is indispensable to quantifyuncertainty in order to determine, which are robust results under this inherent uncertainty. Thecentral goal of this thesis is to explore how uncertainties map on the properties of interest suchas phase space topology and qualitative dynamics of the system. We will address several typesof uncertainty and apply methods of dynamical systems theory on a trendsetting field of climateresearch, i.e. the Indian monsoon.