Les voies incertaines de la transitologie : choix stratégiques, séquences historiques, bifurcations et processus de path dependence - article ; n°4 ; vol.50, pg 585-614

Revue française de science politique - Année 2000 - Volume 50 - Numéro 4 - Pages 585-614
Uncertain paths of transitology : strategic choices, historical sequences, bifurcations and path dependence processes.
The article examines the problems that the analysis of processes of transition towards demo­cracy meets, from the point of vue of the transformations in this field of research since the 1989 political upheavals in Eastern Europe, in particular with the self-assertion, next to the strategic approach of classic transitology , of an approach that was, at least in this area, defined in opposition to it, that of path dependence. The article attempts to identify the way in which the various transitological approaches define the enigmas to be solved, the specificity of their research objects and their explanatory principles. That is where it is possible to locate, in spite of the real differences that separate these approaches, the main sources of the obstacles and difficulties that they come across, particularly concerning : the relations between the historical paths of transitions and the results these paths are supposed to lead to ; the weight of determi­nation of the past, and the way in which this past is supposed to count ; the bifurcations in the trajectories of the transitions, and the critical junctures, often confused with big events or with crises ; the temptation of methodological exceptionalism, i.e. the difficulty the transitological approaches have in conceiving of the diversity of the conjunctures which make up transitions ; lastly, what a consolidated democratic system and what the process of consolidation, which is supposed to lead to this state, are made up of, as well as the place given to uncertainty as a definitional feature of democracy.
Uncertain paths of transitology : strategic choices, historical sequences, bifurcations and path dependence processes.
The article examines the problems that the analysis of processes of transition towards demo­cracy meets, from the point of vue of the transformations in this field of research since the 1989 political upheavals in Eastern Europe, in particular with the self-assertion, next to the strategic approach of classic transitology , of an approach that was, at least in this area, defined in opposition to it, that of path dependence. The article attempts to identify the way in which the various transitological approaches define the enigmas to be solved, the specificity of their research objects and their explanatory principles. That is where it is possible to locate, in spite of the real differences that separate these approaches, the main sources of the obstacles and difficulties that they come across, particularly concerning : the relations between the historical paths of transitions and the results these paths are supposed to lead to ; the weight of determi­nation of the past, and the way in which this past is supposed to count ; the bifurcations in the trajectories of the transitions, and the critical junctures, often confused with big events or with crises ; the temptation of methodological exceptionalism, i.e. the difficulty the transitological approaches have in conceiving of the diversity of the conjunctures which make up transitions ; lastly, what a consolidated democratic system and what the process of consolidation, which is supposed to lead to this state, are made up of, as well as the place given to uncertainty as a definitional feature of democracy.
30 pages
Source : Persée ; Ministère de la jeunesse, de l’éducation nationale et de la recherche, Direction de l’enseignement supérieur, Sous-direction des bibliothèques et de la documentation.