Floods in Germany [Elektronische Ressource] : analyses of trends, seasonality and circulation patterns / by Theresia Petrow

Institute of GeoecologyFloodsinGermany–AnalysesofTrends,SeasonalityandCirculationPatternsDissertationfor the degree of Doctor of Natural Sciences(Dr.rer.nat.)in Geoecologysubmitted to the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciencesat the University of Potsdam, GermanybyTheresia PetrowPotsdam, June 2009 Published online at the Institutional Repository of the University of Potsdam: URL http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2009/3739/ URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37392 [http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37392] AbstractFloodhazardestimationsareconductedwithavarietyofmethods. Theseincludefloodfre-quencyanalysis(FFA),hydrologicandhydraulicmodelling,probablemaximumdischargesaswellasclimatescenarios. However,mostofthesemethodsassumestationarityoftheusedtimeseries,i.e.,theseriesmustnotexhibittrends. Againstthebackgroundofclimatechangeandprovensignificanttrendsinatmosphericcirculationpatterns,itisquestionablewhetherthesechangesarealsoreflectedinthedischargedata.TheaimofthisPhDthesisisthereforetoclarify,inaspatially-explicitmanner,whetherthe available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends.Concerningthefloodhazard,thesuitabilityofthecurrentlyusedstationaryFFAapproachesisevaluatedforthedischargedata. Moreover,dynamicsinatmosphericcirculationpatternsarestudiedandthelinkbetweentrendsinthesepatternsanddischargesisinvestigated.