Entropies and predictability of variability indices of the tropical Pacific [Elektronische Ressource] / von Luis Eduardo Ortiz Tánchez

Entropies and predictability of variabilityindices of the tropical PacificDISSERTATIONzur Erlangung des akademischen Gradesdoctor rerum naturalium(dr. rer. nat.)im Fach Physikeingereicht an derMathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät IHumboldt-Universität zu BerlinvonHerr Lic. en Física Aplicada Luis Eduardo Ortiz Tánchezgeboren am 23.05.1979 in Guatemala Stadt, GuatemalaPräsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin:Prof. Dr. Jürgen MlynekDekan der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät I:Prof. Thomas Buckhout, PhDGutachter:1. Prof. Dr. Werner Ebeling2. Prof. Dr. Karl Lanius3. Dr. habil. Rainer Feisteleingereicht am: 15. April 2004Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 12. August 2004AbstractThis doctoral thesis is concerned with the problems of the predictability andthe temporal structure of indices of the climatic variability in the tropical Pa-cific, which is known in the scale of decades as El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). For this purpose, time series of the anomalies and persistences of theSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and of theSea Surface Temperature (SST) were investigated. Methods of the dynamicaland conditional shannon entropies were applied for the investigation of thepredictability of symbolic sequences derived from the time series. The inves-tigation of the conditional entropies for symbolic sequences shows that themost probable Events of ENSO occur after constant short sequences.