Constraining uncertainty in climate sensitivity [Elektronische Ressource] : an ensemble simulation approach based on glacial climate / vorgelegt von Thomas Schneider von Deimling

Constraining uncertainty in climate sensitivity An ensemble simulation approach based on glacial climate DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades "doctor rerum naturalium" (Dr. rer. nat.) in der Wissenschaftsdisziplin "Klimaphysik“ eingereicht an der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vorgelegt von von Thomas Schneider von Deimling Potsdam, im Februar 2006 2 Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. Voltaire (Francois Marie Arouet), Letter to Frederick the Great, April 6, 1767 3 4 Abstract Uncertainty about the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the Earth’s radiative balance constitutes a primary source of uncertainty for climate projections. Given the continuous increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, constraining the uncertainty range in such type of sensitivity is of vital importance. A common measure for expressing this key characteristic for climate models is the climate sensitivity, defined as the simulated change in global-mean equilibrium temperature resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO concentration. The broad range of climate sensitivity estimates (1.5-4.