Combined forecasts and forecast breakdown preselection [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Dirk Ulbricht

Combined Forecasts and ForecastBreakdown PreselectionInaugural-Dissertationzur Erlangung des GradesDoctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.)an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit at Munc hen2008vorgelegt vonDirk UlbrichtReferent: Prof. Dr. Gebhard FlaigKorreferent: PD Dr. Klaus AbbergerPromotionsabschlussberatung: 04. Februar 2009AcknowledgementsI thank Gebhard Flaig, Klaus Abberger, and Kai Carstensen for supervis-ing my thesis. I am especially indebted to Gebhard Flaig who providedme with many helpful suggestions, important advice, and constant encour-agement during the course of this work. I am grateful to Ifo for providingme with a stimulating research environment. I thank all my colleges atthe Department of Business Cycle Analyses and Surveys for many helpfulinsights. I gratefully reckognize contributions of Johannes Mayr, ThomasStrobel, Klaus Wohlrabe, Georg Wamser, and Ste en Henzel. I am indebtedto Ulrich Oberndorfer, Oliver R ohn, Ulrike J ager, and Anja Rohwer for theireditorial help. Participants at conferences in Brisbane, Nice, Vienna, andKiel made very valuable comments to improve this work. All chapters prof-ited from seminar presentations at Ifo. I am particularly indebted to mybrother Jochen Ulbricht and Julia Kneissl for moral support..Con.ten.ts.1.In.tro.duction.13.2.Theory4.2of.comcombined.forecastsCH23.2.1orCom.binationscof.a.pair.of.forecasts..AR.A.............