Agent-based modeling of land-use changes and vulnerability assessment in a coupled socio-ecological system in the coastal zone of Sri Lanka [Elektronische Ressource] / Marcus Kaplan

Agent-based modeling of land-use changes and vulnerability assessment in a coupled socio-ecological system in the coastal zone of Sri Lanka Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades (Dr. rer. nat) der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn vorgelegt von MARCUS KAPLAN Aus REMSCHEID Bonn 2011 1. Referent: Prof. Dr. Paul L.G. Vlek 2. Referent: Prof. Dr. Eckart Ehlers Tag der Promotion: 03.03.2011 Erscheinungsjahr: 2011 Diese Dissertation ist auf dem Hochschulschriftenserver der ULB Bonn http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/diss_online elektronisch publiziert ABSTRACT In recent decades, the different impacts of global change have led to an increased exposure and vulnerability of coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) to various disturbances and stressors. Human-induced land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) are an important factor contributing to the vulnerability of such systems. It is therefore reasonable to analyse vulnerability and LUCC in a combined effort. In this study, projections for future LUCC around an estuary in southwestern Sri Lanka were developed. In a subsequent step, the vulnerability of the coupled coastal system to natural hazards was analyzed based on the effects of the tsunami in December 2004.