Wheat Comment 10-20-09

Wheat Morning Update & Commentary Wheat continues to move higher, forcing shorts to take cover. Wheat should be supported by both Corn and Soybean markets that seem intent on seeking out higher prices, with harvest not close to being home yet. Despite the decline in the Dollar, US Wheat is still not as competitive as Black Sea origin. Japan's Ag Ministry announced their weekly Thursday tender they're seeking 133,000 mt of Wheat from US/Canadian and Aussie origin. Glencore was the reported seller of 300,000 mt of Wheat in an Algerian tender that closed late last week. The price was reportedly $209/mt cif. Oct 26th is bid deadline for 100,000 mt plus Wheat tender floated by Iraq's Grain Board. Egypt hopes to improve self-sufficiency on wheat, currently the nation is 55%, and their target is 75% by 2020. In the U.S. approximately 69% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted up from last week's 64% and long term average plantings of 78%. 48% of the Winter Wheat crop has emerged, up from the prior week's 39%. A year ago at this time 56% has emerged, while the long term average is 54%. HRW basis is flat while freight remains firm. SRW Basis remains flat with a full pipeline overhanging the market. The prospect of a better-than-expected Australian wheat crop appears to have faded after extreme weather in grain-growing regions occurred over the weekend. Grain analysts said frosts in the east of the country and a heat-wave in the west could make it ...