Opening a Pandora’s Box : Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon

No 2013 – 22 July Opening a Pandora’s Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon _____________ Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL CEPII Working Paper Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon TABLE OF CONTENTS Highlights .............................................................................................................................................. 3  Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. 3  Points clefs ............................................................................................................................................ 4  Résumé court ....................... 4  Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 5  1.  Modelling growth projections and designing scenarios for the world economy ........................... 8  1.1.  Growth projections................................................................................................................. 8  1.2.  Dynamic baselines ................................................................................................................. 9  1.3.  Scenario design .................................................................................................................... 11  2.