Etude

„„„„ SECTOR REPORT EQUITY RESEARCH 24 November 2010 Europe115.18 Energy 95.18 75.18 55.18nov -07 av r-09 août-10DJ St oxx Ener gy Playing global imbalances in downstream oil Rel. DJ St ox x Source: Natixis Against the backdrop of a conference we are organising in Paris, in this report we consider the impacts of the crisis on the refining industry and the growth differentials between developed and developing countries. Analyst(s) After four years of strong business in the refining industry (a ‘golden age’), Julien Laurent (33 1) 58 55 05 38 2009 showed a clear downturn with a utilisation rate down 3.5 points worldwide to ju.laurent@natixis.com 81.1%. The restructuring in Europe is underway: the closure of the Teeside, Anne Pumir (33 1) 58 55 05 20 anne.pumir@natixis.com Dunkirk and Reichstett refineries and the reduction in capacity at Gonfreville are a Hager Bouali (33 1) 58 55 05 29 start but many installations are up for sale. In addition, the market is weakened by: hager.bouali@natixis.com declining American demand, which hitherto absorbed the European surplus, the targets for biofuel usage, the reinforcement of product standards, and the application of CO2 quotas of in an industry where competition is global. We identify two underlying trends for the future: 1/ increased need for logistical capacities (terminals and storage) to respond to a rise in inter-regional flows and local demand specificities (diesel ...