Comment on the Outlook

RBA Surprises: But Rates View Over the Next 12 Months Unchanged 5 October 2010 RBA surprised today, by not changing the Cash Rate. The currency fell 1c in a few minutes and bills rallied around 15 points. The RBA statement was very short, basically saying that, on the global economy, China is still strong, but USA and Europe is slowing. Locally, the RBA noted that asset prices (housing & commodities) have been broadly unchanged recently and credit growth subdued. The RBA also said that the CPI (core) is likely to stay around 2¾% for a while. Our forecast of CPI growth of 0.7% in the September Quarter (to be released by the Statistician on 27 October) would see annual inflation slowing to around 2½% before moving up to 3% during 2011. Finally the statement noted that "if economic conditions evolve as the Board expect it is likely that higher interest rates will be required...". Basically we see this as a temporary reprieve. We still see rates rising to 5½% by mid next year (as previously forecast) and we still expect a pre Xmas rise. The timing will, however, depend on the flow of data – especially relating to the labour market and inflation. We now see both the November or December meetings as potentially "live" . We have tentatively put the next rise in November but, as noted above, it will be data dependent - with weak inflation numbers meaning that they could well skip November but still go in December. Overall, however ...