ON THE FIT AND FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF NEW-KEYNESIAN MODELS

WORKING PAPER SERIESNO. 491 / JUNE 2005ON THE FIT ANDFORECASTINGPERFORMANCE OF NEW-KEYNESIAN MODELSby Marco Del Negro,Frank SchorfheideFrank Smets and Raf WoutersWORKING PAPER SERIESNO. 491 / JUNE 2005ON THE FIT ANDFORECASTINGPERFORMANCE OF NEW-KEYNESIAN 1MODELS2by Marco Del Negro ,3Frank Schorfheide ,4Frank Smets5and Raf WoutersIn 2005 all ECB publications This paper can be downloaded without charge from will feature a motif taken http://www.ecb.int or from the Social Science Research Network from the €50 banknote. electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=726684.1 We thank seminar participants at the Atlanta Fed, New York University, Northwestern University, the Richmond Fed, Stanford University,the University of Virginia,Yale University, the workshop on “Empirical Methods and Applications to DSGE Models” at the Cleveland Fed,ndthe 2 Euro Area Business Cycle Network (ECB, Fall 2003), 2004 SED, and 2004 SCE conferences for useful comments. The viewsexpressed in this papers are solely our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,The Federal Reserve System, the European Central Bank, or the National Bank of Belgium.2 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Research Department, 1000 Peachtree Street N.E., Atlanta, GA 3030 -44 0, USA e-mail: Marco.DelNegro@atl.frb.org3 University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics, 37 18 L ocust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19 104, USA; e-mail: ...