future_of_employment_18.dvi

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO ∗COMPUTERISATION? † ‡Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne September 17, 2013 . Abstract We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To as- sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine ex- pected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relation- ship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation. Keywords: Occupational Choice, Technological Change, Wage Inequal- ity, Employment, Skill Demand JEL Classification: E24, J24, J31, J62, O33. ∗We thank the Oxford University Engineering Sciences Department and the Oxford Mar- tin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology for hosting the “Machines and Employ- ment” Workshop.