Un Essaie d'Application de la Théorie Quantitative

Niveau: Supérieur, Master, Bac+4
Un Essaie d'Application de la Théorie Quantitative de la Monnaie à l'Economie Portugaise, 1854 - 1998 João Sousa Andrade Faculdade de Economia, G.E.M.F. Universidade de Coimbra emailto: (Provisoire) Following Friedman we can say that from the macro-economic point of view we need a theory to explain a) the short-run division of a change in nominal income between prices and output; b) the short-run adjustment of nominal income to a change in money supply; and finally c) the correction mechanism that permits to conciliate that adjustment with the long-run equilibrium. Our objective covers the last two points in its application to the Portuguese economy from 1859 to 1998. We have applied some money models to explain the behav- iour of nominal income and we conclude that we cannot exclude a money supply (M1) elasticity of one. This result is obtained for the long as well for the short-run. We can take the quantity theory as a money income theory for our data. Result's robustness and good forecasting ability are the main characteristics of our models. We have applied several econometric models. Our first model is a single ecm equation with unrestricted and restricted options. We also have searched for a co- integration vector applying the Johansen method.

• application de la théorie quantitative de la monnaie


• variables utili- sés


• intérieur brut aux prix courant


• variable


• contraintes de liquidité de l'éco- nomie, du système bancaire et des marchés financiers


• théorie du revenu nominal


• rican economic