BNP RESEARCH - Economic & Market monitor - July-August

/// July-August 2011 /// 2 Italy 25 Editorial Stable, and sluggish A pause in the global recovery Economic and financial Forecasts 4 Spain 28 Some hopeful signs United States 5 United Kingdom 31 Activity, public finances: alarm levels have been Rate hikes will have to wait reached Japan 9 Brazil 35 A remarkable recovery Even the brightest growth cycles have a downward phase Eurozone 13 Russia 38 Monetary policy for the eurozone? A very tough Between struggling Europe and overheating Asia job Germany 17 India 42 Business investment will pick up Monetary policy left to deal alone with signs of overheating France 21 China 45 Bumps and troughs Concerns over inflation, less on growth Chief Editor : Philippe d’Arvisenet Completed : 30 June 2011 economic-research.bnpparibas.com Editorial July-August 2011 Editorial A pause in the global recovery Just a bout of weakness or completely anaemic? In any case, the world Inventories at the top economy has lost its dynamic momentum as it pulled out of winter 2011. The United States, inventory variation / GDP US economy began to slow down as of the first quarter, falling back to an annualized growth rate of barely 2%. Eurozone growth has held up better at an 1,0% ed rate of nearly 3.4%, thanks notably to Germany, which accounts for 0,5% half of this figure. But economic surveys suggest that growth is stalling. They depict a ...