Independent Annual Growth Survey

independent Annual Growth Survey Second Report iAGS 2014 December 2013 iAGS is an independent open project subject to the Creative Commons Licence Financial support from the S&D Group of the European Parliament within the context of their Progressive Economy Initiative, is gratefully acknowledged The positions expressed in this report are those of iAGS and are fully independent of the views of its sponsors Authors ECLM Lars Andersen Erik Bjoersted Signe Hansen IMK Peter Hohlfeld Gustav A. Horn Ansgar Rannenberg Silke Tober Andrew Watt OFCE Guillaume Allègre Céline Antonin Christophe Blot Marion Cochard Jérôme Creel Bruno Ducoudré Éric Heyer Akshay Juleemun Gissela Landa Sabine le Bayon Pierre Madec Paul Malliet Hervé Péleraux Francesco Saraceno Aurélien Saussay Danielle Schweisguth Xavier Timbeau iAGS Contacts Scientific: economics@iags-project.org Press: press@iags-project.org Released on December 4 th, 2013 Table INDEPENDENT ANNUAL GROWTH SURVEY 2014 OFCE-IMK-ECLM Executive summary From austerity to stagnation: How to avoid the deflation trap . . . . . . . . .7 Chapter 1 This is not a recovery…: Economic perspectives for the euro area and euro area countries in 2013, 2014 and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Appendix A. Germany: the economy is lacking dynamism . . . . . . . . . . .39 Appendix B. France: Less fiscal consolidation, more growth . . . . . . . . . .41 Appendix C. Italy: a light at the end of the tunnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .