Analysis of the Reliability of the Audit Proposed by the CNE

Analysis of the R eliability of t he A udit Pr oposed b y t he C NE(N ov. 20, 2006)I The National Electoral Council (CNE) proposed an audit of the electoral results printed by the “electoral voting machine” which consists in the opening of at least one ballot box in each and every one of the automated V oting C enters, according t o the following t able:Nº of tables in the Center 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10Nº of tables to be audited 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5On a na tional level, this distribution i ncludes somewhat more than 54% of the vot ing t able’s ba llot boxe s.The opposition accepted this proposal on the basis that since 1978 the CNE has located the electors in (the) Voting Centers according to the last (terminal) numbers of the Identity Cards, certain of the 1quantitative (electors pe r table) and qua litative (electoral preference) uni form distribution.IIA study regarding the distribution of electors of the tables and Voting Centers for the December 3, 2006 election (see Section III) detected, against all statistical expectations, an important distortion in the distribution of the terminal num bers of the Identity C ards in 1,687 Voting C enters.Delving deeper into the analysis, it was found that this distortion was not random but a forced “migration” of voters from Centers where the “Officialist” party had consistently won: a 2“gerrymandering” which a ffected 4,229,185 electors from those Centers.What is unjustifiable about those forced ...