Getting to 100 billions, climate finance scenarios and projections to 2020

WORKING PAPER Finding A Middle Ground To Reach $100 Billion GETTING TO $100 BILLION: CLIMATE FINANCE SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS TO 2020 MICHAEL I. WESTPHAL, PASCAL CANFIN, ATHENA BALLESTEROS, AND JENNIFER MORGAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At Copenhagen in 2009, developed country Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) committed to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion a year by 2020 from public and private sources to support climate action in developing countries. More than îve years later, the sources, instruments, and channels that should count toward that goal remain ambiguous. As the Parties negotiate a new agreement for the post-2020 period, progress in meeting earlier climate înance commitments is needed to promote trust and conîdence in a future climate regime. This paper contributes to the dialogue about what types of înance could count toward the $100 billion goal. We analyze this question quantitatively by projecting various înance sources forward to 2020 to demonstrate the scenarios under which reaching the $100 billon goal is possible. Our analysis suggests that a combination of sources, coupled with increased public ows, will likely be needed to meet the $100 billion goal.