OIES-CS Comment Tom Brewer September 2010x

Oxford Energy and Environment Comment October 2010 U.S. Government Policymaking on Climate Change Recent Developments, Transitions, and Prospects for the Future 1by Thomas Brewer Introduction Government policymaking on climate change issues in the United States is in the midst of a significant transition period. The transition has been triggered in part by the recent declaration by Senator Harry Reid, Leader of the Democratic Party in the Senate, that there would not be a cap-and-trade bill passed this year; however, he was not only making a proclamation about the legislative calendar of the Senate, he was also inadvertently marking the transition to a new era in U.S. policymaking on a broad range of climate change issues. Recent events, the nature of the transition period and the prospects for policymaking during the next several years can all be represented conveniently in terms of five clusters of issues. Although the five are partly interdependent with one another, each has distinctive patterns in the domestic pressures and constraints that shape U.S. policymaking. 1. National Cap-and-Trade Legislation Establishment of a national mandatory cap-and-trade system through Congressional legislation is virtually dead for at least the next two years, and perhaps for several years beyond that. It is likely that the November elections will enable the Republican Party to regain a majority in the House of Representatives and thus prevent action in ...