Comment on the algorithm used to generate the estimate of LTC needs among the general prison population

Independent Review of Abt Associates Needs Assessment Report Steven Raphael Professor Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley 2607 Hearst Avenue Berkeley, CA 94720-7320 Tel: (510) 643-0536 E-mail: stevenraphael@berkeley.edu Prepared for Terry Hill, MD. CEO, Medical Services California Prison Receivership January 16, 2009 2 This memo provides an overview and evaluation of the Abt Associates research report titled “Chronic and Long-Term Care in California Prisons: Needs Assessment.” The memo also includes a discussion of the June 13, 2008 update to the original report that takes into account new population projections by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) as well as the potential impact of the early release of approximately 20,000 inmates. I first provide an overview of the goals, methodological approach and conclusions of the original assessment and the update. I then provide a critical assessment of the final estimates. To summarize my conclusions, the sampling strategy employed by Abt is certainly sensible and likely captures inmates most in need of long term care outside of the general population. The procedures used to impute long term care need among general population inmates from a survey of medical beds are likely to include some biases, although the identifiable biases are often opposite in sign and are likely to cancel one another out ...